Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH)

FairStock Score: 38/100 — MIXED

Key Financials

AI Analysis

AI-generated, general educational analysis — not personal investment advice.

At $15.25 on 2026-10-26, Norwegian is a classic cyclical turnaround rather than a compounding franchise. FairStock's Lynch label is TURNAROUND—returned to profit after a loss within the last three years—and the filings support a volatile recovery. In fiscal Q2 2026, the quarter ended 2026-06-30, revenue was $2.6B and net income $222.6M, or diluted EPS $0.48; that compares with revenue $2.5B, net income $30.0M, and EPS $0.07 in fiscal Q2 2025, the quarter ended 2025-06-30. But fiscal 2025, the year ended 2025-12-31, was uneven: revenue was $9.8B versus $9.5B in fiscal 2024, the year ended 2024-12-31, while net income fell to $423.2M from $910.3M. So growth is real off a low base, not smooth. The business is capital-intensive and cyclical. Brand and scale help, but I do not see a durable moat: consumers can substitute land vacations, and pricing depends on demand. The balance sheet is the crux. FairStock shows debt-to-equity of 6.21, Altman Z-score -0.20, ROCE 4.25%, and trailing free cash flow of -$1.2B with FCF yield -16.9%. ROE 36.73% looks high but is flattered by leverage. Piotroski 6/9 is middling. Valuation is not demanding: P/E 9.24, EV/EBITDA 7.68, and P/B 2.72, all FairStock calculations tied to the close. Yet Graham Number is $14.42, leaving a -4.72% margin of safety, so price is slightly above my conservative value. The recovery is promising, but negative FCF and high leverage mean I want a larger discount before calling it a Graham bargain.

In plain English: Norwegian Cruise Line runs cruise ships to many destinations. The business has swung back to a profit and the latest quarter was much stronger than a year earlier, but it carries a lot of debt and is not generating free cash. At $15.25, the price looks roughly fair to slightly rich compared with the company's profits and book value.

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Data as of 2026-10-26 close · note generated 2026-10-28 · model deepseek-flash

Sources (SEC EDGAR): fiscal Q2 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-06-30) · fiscal Q1 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-03-31) · fiscal Q3 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-09-30) · fiscal Q2 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-06-30) · FY2025 10-K (period ended 2025-12-31) · FY2024 10-K (period ended 2024-12-31) · FY2023 10-K (period ended 2023-12-31)

Fundamentals from company filings and market-data providers; prices are end-of-day, not real-time. AI-generated analysis is general and educational — not personal investment advice. Scoring methodology · Score test · Disclaimer