Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. Common Stock (NCDL)

FairStock Score: 35/100 — MIXED

Key Financials

AI Analysis

AI-generated, general educational analysis — not personal investment advice.

I look at Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending as a non-diversified, externally managed business development company, not a business with a wide moat. It lends to smaller companies, so its fortunes depend on credit selection and spreads, and the external manager takes fees whether shareholders prosper or not. The recent trajectory is troubling. Filed figures show net income of $75.9M in fiscal year 2023, $116.3M in fiscal year 2024, then $65.6M in fiscal year 2025. Diluted EPS fell from $2.52 in fiscal year 2023 to $2.26 in fiscal year 2024 to $1.86 in fiscal year 2025. More recently, in fiscal Q2 2026, the quarter ended 2026-06-30, net income was $3.6M, far below the $16.0M in fiscal Q2 2025, the quarter ended 2025-06-30. Q1 2026 net income was $8.7M. That is a sharp downward trend, even if the FairStock Lynch category calls it a STALWART with 24.6% annual profit growth over four years; the recent numbers challenge that label. At the close on 2026-10-13, the price was $10.77, with a FairStock-calculated P/E of 11.34 and a Graham Number of $19.17, implying a 43.82% margin of safety. The FairStock score is 35/100. The 14.11% dividend yield and 21.3% FCF yield are attractive, but the Altman Z-Score of 0.23 and Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 signal balance-sheet and quality caution. I would need evidence that credit losses are contained and earnings are stabilizing before trusting the dividend.

In plain English: Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending is a business development company, meaning it lends money to smaller companies and is run by an outside manager. The business looks weaker lately: profit in the quarter ended June 30, 2026 was much lower than a year earlier, and the stock has fallen near the bottom of its 52-week range. At $10.77, the price looks cheap compared with reported earnings and a value estimate, but the high dividend yield and low financial-health scores suggest real risk.

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Data as of 2026-10-13 close · note generated 2026-10-15 · model deepseek-flash

Sources (SEC EDGAR): fiscal Q2 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-06-30) · fiscal Q1 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-03-31) · fiscal Q3 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-09-30) · fiscal Q2 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-06-30) · FY2025 10-K (period ended 2025-12-31) · FY2024 10-K (period ended 2024-12-31) · FY2023 10-K (period ended 2023-12-31)

Fundamentals from company filings and market-data providers; prices are end-of-day, not real-time. AI-generated analysis is general and educational — not personal investment advice. Scoring methodology · Score test · Disclaimer