Meritage Homes Corporation Common Stock (MTH)

FairStock Score: 55/100 — STEADY

Key Financials

AI Analysis

AI-generated, general educational analysis — not personal investment advice.

Mr. Market is offering Meritage at $58.25 as of 2026-10-13, near the low end of its 52-week range of $57.63-$85.38. FairStock's calculations show a P/E of 12.14, P/B of 0.75, FCF yield of 10.9%, and dividend yield of 3.04%. That is not demanding. The Graham Number is $91.55, implying a margin of safety of 36.37%, while an Altman Z-Score of 3.15 and debt-to-equity of 0.38 suggest the balance sheet is not distressed. A Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 is also reasonable. But this is a cyclical homebuilder; the latest filed figures show fiscal Q2 2026, the quarter ended 2026-06-30, net income of $90.6M and diluted EPS of $1.37, down from fiscal Q2 2025 net income of $146.9M and diluted EPS of $2.04. For FY2025, net income was $453.0M and diluted EPS $6.35, versus FY2024 net income of $786.2M and diluted EPS of $10.72. So earnings are falling, and FairStock's ROE of 6.38% and ROCE of 3.35% are modest. The moat in homebuilding is thin—land, brand, scale and cost control matter, but prices are set by local markets and interest rates. If housing normalizes, today's price may prove cheap; if the downturn deepens, book value and free cash flow can shrink. I want a margin of safety, and here it exists on paper, but the quality is cyclical, not a wide-moat compounder.

In plain English: Meritage builds single-family homes in many U.S. states. The business looks weaker lately: net income and earnings per share fell in the fiscal second quarter of 2026 compared with a year earlier, and the stock sits near its 52-week low. The price looks relatively cheap compared with the company's accounting value and recent cash generation, but homebuilding is a boom-and-bust business, so results can change sharply.

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Data as of 2026-10-13 close · note generated 2026-10-15 · model deepseek-flash

Sources (SEC EDGAR): fiscal Q2 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-06-30) · fiscal Q1 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-03-31) · fiscal Q3 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-09-30) · fiscal Q2 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-06-30) · FY2025 10-K (period ended 2025-12-31) · FY2024 10-K (period ended 2024-12-31) · FY2023 10-K (period ended 2023-12-31)

Fundamentals from company filings and market-data providers; prices are end-of-day, not real-time. AI-generated analysis is general and educational — not personal investment advice. Scoring methodology · Score test · Disclaimer