Moderna, Inc. (MRNA)

FairStock Score: 35/100 — MIXED

Key Financials

AI Analysis

AI-generated, general educational analysis — not personal investment advice.

I look for durable economics and a margin of safety, and Moderna does not offer either today. It is a real mRNA platform with respiratory, latent, enteric, public-health and bacterial programs, but the filed numbers show a business in retreat. In fiscal Q2 2026, the quarter ended 2026-06-30, revenue was $145.0 million and net loss $782.0 million; fiscal Q1 2026 revenue was $389.0 million with a $1.3 billion net loss. For FY2025 revenue was $1.9 billion and net loss $2.8 billion, after FY2024 revenue of $3.2 billion and net loss $3.6 billion, and FY2023 revenue of $6.8 billion and net loss $4.7 billion. That is shrinking revenue with persistent losses. FairStock classifies it as a TURNAROUND because the latest year was a loss after earlier profits. At the 2026-10-26 close of $198.85, FairStock's P/E is -24.92 and P/B 11.73; ROE is -39.00% and ROCE -13.26%. Free cash flow is -$1.2 billion TTM and FCF yield -1.6%. The Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 confirms weak fundamentals. Debt is modest at D/E 0.19 and the Altman Z-Score of 12.19 is not distressed on that measure, so liquidity may not be immediate, but cash burn is real. Growth depends on new vaccines and pipeline success, not on the current income statement. I see no Graham margin of safety in paying $79.4 billion for $1.9 billion of FY2025 revenue when losses are this large. Until revenue stabilizes and cash flow improves, this is a speculative turnaround, not a value investment.

In plain English: Moderna makes medicines and vaccines using messenger RNA. The business looks weak right now: it is losing large amounts of money and using cash, and its latest reported quarter was very poor. At the recent share price, the price looks expensive compared with current sales and losses, so it would need a big turnaround to justify it.

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Data as of 2026-10-26 close · note generated 2026-10-28 · model deepseek-flash

Sources (SEC EDGAR): fiscal Q2 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-06-30) · fiscal Q1 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-03-31) · fiscal Q3 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-09-30) · fiscal Q2 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-06-30) · FY2025 10-K (period ended 2025-12-31) · FY2024 10-K (period ended 2024-12-31) · FY2023 10-K (period ended 2023-12-31)

Fundamentals from company filings and market-data providers; prices are end-of-day, not real-time. AI-generated analysis is general and educational — not personal investment advice. Scoring methodology · Score test · Disclaimer