Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC)

FairStock Score: 67/100 — STEADY

Key Financials

AI Analysis

AI-generated, general educational analysis — not personal investment advice.

I view Marathon Petroleum as a cyclical downstream operator, not a stable franchise. It refines crude in the Gulf Coast, Mid-Continent, and West Coast, and adds midstream and renewable diesel. In fiscal Q2 2026, the quarter ended 2026-06-30, revenue was $52.0 billion, net income $5.1 billion, and diluted EPS $17.73. That is a dramatic jump from fiscal Q2 2025, when revenue was $33.8 billion, net income $1.2 billion, and diluted EPS $3.96. Yet the annual record is uneven: FY2023 net income was $9.7 billion and EPS $23.63; FY2024 net income fell to $3.4 billion and EPS $10.08; FY2025 net income was $4.0 billion and EPS $13.22. FairStock labels this a CYCLICAL — Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing company because earnings follow the economic cycle. Financial signals are currently strong: Piotroski F-Score 9/9, TTM free cash flow $12.9 billion, and FCF yield 9.6%. But debt/equity is 1.33 and Altman Z-Score is 2.72. At the 2026-10-13 close of $476.98, FairStock calculations show P/E 16.53, P/B 7.08, EV/EBITDA 9.11, ROE 42.10%, ROCE 8.74%, and dividend yield 0.94%. The Graham Number is $209.18, a negative margin of safety of 128.02%. I see a decent cash-generating business whose price already assumes strong refining conditions. The key question is normalized mid-cycle earnings, not this quarter's peak.

In plain English: Marathon Petroleum turns crude oil into fuels such as gasoline and diesel and also runs pipelines and renewable diesel operations. The business is earning a lot right now and producing strong cash flow, but its profits swing widely with energy prices and refining margins, so recent results may not last. At the recent price, the shares look expensive compared with the company's accounting value and a conservative estimate of its worth, even though cash flow is supportive.

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Data as of 2026-10-13 close · note generated 2026-10-15 · model deepseek-flash

Sources (SEC EDGAR): fiscal Q2 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-06-30) · fiscal Q1 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-03-31) · fiscal Q3 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-09-30) · fiscal Q2 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-06-30) · FY2025 10-K (period ended 2025-12-31) · FY2024 10-K (period ended 2024-12-31) · FY2023 10-K (period ended 2023-12-31)

Fundamentals from company filings and market-data providers; prices are end-of-day, not real-time. AI-generated analysis is general and educational — not personal investment advice. Scoring methodology · Score test · Disclaimer