Mach Natural Resources LP Common Units representing Limited Partner Interests (MNR)

FairStock Score: 61/100 — STEADY

Key Financials

AI Analysis

AI-generated, general educational analysis — not personal investment advice.

I am looking for durable earning power and a margin of safety, and Mach does not offer much of either. It is a cyclical upstream partnership in the Anadarko Basin with PDP wells and midstream assets; those assets can lower costs locally, but commodity prices still set the outcome, so the moat is narrow. The filed record is lumpy. In fiscal Q2 2026, the quarter ended 2026-06-30, revenue was $406.0M, net income $98.2M, and diluted EPS $0.58. Yet in fiscal Q1 2026, the quarter ended 2026-03-31, the company lost $35.0M, or $0.21 per diluted unit, and in fiscal Q3 2025, the quarter ended 2025-09-30, it lost $35.7M, or $0.28 per diluted unit. For FY2025, ended 2025-12-31, revenue was $1.2B and net income $143.0M, or $1.09 diluted EPS, down from FY2024 net income of $185.2M, or $1.90 diluted EPS, even though FY2024 revenue was $969.6M. FairStock's calculations show P/E 20.11, P/B 1.00, ROE 6.25%, ROCE 4.05%, D/E 0.65, and Altman Z-Score 0.81, which flags financial risk. Piotroski F-Score 8/9 is a positive accounting signal, and FCF yield of 13.3% with EV/EBITDA of 5.45 looks cheap if cash flow holds. But the 16.17% dividend yield is not safely covered by uneven earnings. At the $11.06 close on 2026-10-13, the Graham Number of $11.69 leaves only a 5.39% margin of safety. I would call this a leveraged, cyclical asset play, not a classic bargain.

In plain English: Mach Natural Resources is an oil and gas company that buys and develops wells and related pipelines and processing plants in Oklahoma, Kansas, and Texas. Its profits swing with energy prices: the latest reported quarter was solidly profitable, but full-year 2025 profit was lower than 2024. At the recent $11.06 close, the shares look roughly fair rather than clearly cheap, and the very high dividend comes with real financial risk.

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Data as of 2026-10-13 close · note generated 2026-10-15 · model deepseek-flash

Sources (SEC EDGAR): fiscal Q2 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-06-30) · fiscal Q1 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-03-31) · fiscal Q3 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-09-30) · fiscal Q2 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-06-30) · FY2025 10-K (period ended 2025-12-31) · FY2024 10-K (period ended 2024-12-31) · FY2023 10-K (period ended 2023-12-31)

Fundamentals from company filings and market-data providers; prices are end-of-day, not real-time. AI-generated analysis is general and educational — not personal investment advice. Scoring methodology · Score test · Disclaimer