MGP Ingredients Inc. (MGPI)

FairStock Score: 44/100 — MIXED

Key Financials

AI Analysis

AI-generated, general educational analysis — not personal investment advice.

As a Buffett/Graham style investor, I start with the numbers. MGP Ingredients sells distilled spirits and food ingredients. In fiscal 2023, filed results showed revenue $836.5M and net income $107.5M; by fiscal 2024 revenue was $703.6M and net income $34.7M; in fiscal 2025 revenue fell to $536.4M and net income turned to a loss of $107.8M, or EPS -$4.99. Fiscal Q1 2026, the quarter ended 2026-03-31, showed revenue $106.4M and a net loss of $134.8M, EPS -$6.30. That is a serious deterioration. The latest provided quarter was profitable, but I cannot treat one quarter as proof of a durable turnaround. The business description suggests a niche supplier, but the numbers do not display pricing power or a wide moat. Financial health is questionable: Altman Z 1.52 (FairStock calc), Piotroski 5/9, ROCE 3.37%, ROE -33.82%, debt to equity 0.64. Free cash flow TTM is only $888,000, a 0.3% FCF yield. Dividend yield 3.39% is not covered by earnings and, based on the 0.3% FCF yield versus a 3.39% dividend yield, not covered by free cash flow either. Price $14.61 on 2026-10-13 is below book, P/B 0.53, and near the 52-week low, which might attract an asset-minded investor. But P/B is only meaningful if book value is real and not impaired by more losses. P/E -1.30 is meaningless with negative EPS. FairStock score 44/100 and Lynch category TURNAROUND — loss in latest year after earlier profits — fit. I would want evidence of stable revenue, restored margins, positive free cash flow, and debt reduction before calling this a margin-of-safety bargain.

In plain English: MGP Ingredients makes distilled spirits, branded spirits, and food ingredients. The business looks weak: it lost money in its latest full year and in the first quarter of 2026, even though a more recent quarter was profitable. At $14.61, the stock looks cheap compared with its accounting net assets and sits near the low end of its 52-week range, but weak profits and very low cash flow mean it is not a clear bargain.

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Data as of 2026-10-13 close · note generated 2026-10-15 · model deepseek-flash

Sources (SEC EDGAR): fiscal Q1 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-03-31) · fiscal Q3 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-09-30) · fiscal Q2 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-06-30) · fiscal Q1 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-03-31) · FY2025 10-K (period ended 2025-12-31) · FY2024 10-K (period ended 2024-12-31) · FY2023 10-K (period ended 2023-12-31)

Fundamentals from company filings and market-data providers; prices are end-of-day, not real-time. AI-generated analysis is general and educational — not personal investment advice. Scoring methodology · Score test · Disclaimer