Madrigal Pharmaceuticals Inc. Common Stock (MDGL)

FairStock Score: 27/100 — RISKY

Key Financials

AI Analysis

AI-generated, general educational analysis — not personal investment advice.

I approach Madrigal as a Graham-style analyst, asking first what is proven and what is paid for. In fiscal Q2 2026, the quarter ended 2026-06-30, revenue was $364.3 million and net loss was $57.9 million, or $1.99 per diluted share. That revenue is impressive against fiscal Q2 2025, the quarter ended 2025-06-30, when revenue was $212.8 million, but the loss also widened from $42.3 million. For fiscal 2025, revenue was $958.4 million and net loss was $288.3 million, or $12.85 per share; fiscal 2024 revenue was $180.1 million with a $465.9 million loss. So the commercial launch is real, but profits are not. Trailing free cash flow is negative $209.3 million, a negative 2.0% yield. The FairStock calculations at the 2026-10-13 close show a price of $452.12, market cap $10.4 billion, P/B of 19.93, ROE of negative 53.31%, ROCE of negative 17.84%, and debt-to-equity of 0.66. The Piotroski F-Score is 5/9 and Altman Z-Score is 7.11, which suggests the balance sheet is not immediately fragile, but the FairStock Score of 27/100 and no Lynch category because of four straight loss years tell the same story: no earnings record. A moat in biotechnology comes from approved products, adoption, and protection from competition, and Rezdiffra's rapid sales growth is the main evidence. But I cannot call this cheap on current numbers. The stock is a bet on future profitability, not a value bargain today. I would need to see continued revenue growth and a clear path to positive earnings and cash flow.

In plain English: Madrigal sells a liver medicine called Rezdiffra for a fatty liver disease called MASH. Sales are growing fast, but the company still loses money and spends more cash than it brings in. At $452.12 a share, the price looks high compared with today's losses, so it depends heavily on future growth.

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Data as of 2026-10-13 close · note generated 2026-10-15 · model deepseek-flash

Sources (SEC EDGAR): fiscal Q2 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-06-30) · fiscal Q1 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-03-31) · fiscal Q3 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-09-30) · fiscal Q2 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-06-30) · FY2025 10-K (period ended 2025-12-31) · FY2024 10-K (period ended 2024-12-31) · FY2023 10-K (period ended 2023-12-31)

Fundamentals from company filings and market-data providers; prices are end-of-day, not real-time. AI-generated analysis is general and educational — not personal investment advice. Scoring methodology · Score test · Disclaimer