Mattel Inc. Common Stock (MAT)

FairStock Score: 60/100 — STEADY

Key Financials

AI Analysis

AI-generated, general educational analysis — not personal investment advice.

Mattel is a durable toy brand owner, with Barbie, American Girl, Disney Princess, Monster High and Polly Pocket giving it shelf space and pricing power that a generic toymaker lacks. That is a modest moat, but toys remain hit-driven and cyclical. The numbers are uneven. In fiscal Q2 2026, the quarter ended 2026-06-30, revenue was $1.1B, net income was a loss of $18.2M, and diluted EPS was -$0.06. Compare that with fiscal Q2 2025, ended 2025-06-30, when revenue was $1.0B, net income was $53.4M, and diluted EPS was $0.16. Fiscal Q3 2025, ended 2025-09-30, was much stronger: revenue $1.7B, net income $278.4M, and diluted EPS $0.88. For fiscal year 2025, ended 2025-12-31, Mattel reported revenue of $5.3B, net income of $397.6M, and diluted EPS of $1.24, down from fiscal year 2024 net income of $541.8M and diluted EPS of $1.58. At the 2026-10-13 close of $16.80, FairStock calculates a P/E of 12.54, P/B of 2.40, ROE of 20.50%, ROCE of 4.73%, and D/E of 1.37. The ROE is appealing, but low ROCE and meaningful debt show capital efficiency is not as strong as the headline return suggests. Free cash flow is $434.6M, a 9.1% FCF yield, which is a genuine positive. Yet the Graham Number is $14.52, leaving the price about 15.70% above that conservative estimate. The Piotroski F-Score is 3/9 and Altman Z-Score 1.95, both signs of fragility. FairStock scores it 60/100 and classifies it as a Stalwart, citing 26.3% annual profit growth over five years and 3.1% revenue growth. I see a recognizable brand, but I would want steadier earnings and a stronger balance sheet before calling this a bargain.

In plain English: Mattel makes toys and family entertainment, including Barbie, American Girl, Disney Princess, Monster High and Polly Pocket. The business is mixed: it generates cash and has had strong longer-term profit growth, but it just posted a losing quarter and carries a lot of debt. At $16.80, the price looks fair to a little expensive compared with its profits and cash, so it is not an obvious bargain.

The full AI analysis, bull and bear case and key monitorables are in FairStock Pro.

Data as of 2026-10-13 close · note generated 2026-10-15 · model deepseek-flash

Sources (SEC EDGAR): fiscal Q2 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-06-30) · fiscal Q1 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-03-31) · fiscal Q3 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-09-30) · fiscal Q2 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-06-30) · FY2025 10-K (period ended 2025-12-31) · FY2024 10-K (period ended 2024-12-31) · FY2023 10-K (period ended 2023-12-31)

Fundamentals from company filings and market-data providers; prices are end-of-day, not real-time. AI-generated analysis is general and educational — not personal investment advice. Scoring methodology · Score test · Disclaimer