Louisiana-Pacific Corporation Common Stock (LPX)

FairStock Score: 35/100 — MIXED

Key Financials

Strengths

• Generates $27 million in annual free cash flow (0.5% yield on market cap)
• Conservative balance sheet with debt-to-equity of just 0.22, providing financial flexibility
• Altman Z-Score of 4.8 confirms minimal bankruptcy risk and strong solvency

Concerns

• Trades significantly above Graham Number ($34) with negative 120% margin of safety—limited downside protection
• Currently unprofitable—sustained losses could lead to dilutive capital raises or balance sheet deterioration
• Revenue declining at 16.6% year-over-year signals potential demand weakness or market share loss
• Weak Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 suggests deteriorating financial quality across multiple dimensions

AI Analysis

Louisiana-Pacific Corporation Common Stock is a small-cap industrials company valued at $5.3 billion. Revenue stands at $2.7 billion, though the company is currently unprofitable. From a quality standpoint, Louisiana-Pacific shows weak Piotroski F-Score of 2/9 signaling deteriorating fundamentals and healthy Altman Z-Score of 4.8. On valuation, the stock is trading at a premium 35.9x earnings, with trades far above its Graham Number ($34) with no margin of safety. Growth dynamics show revenue growing at -16.6% and profit growth of -112.9%. The 1.6% dividend yield adds an income component for patient holders. Our composite FairStock Score of 35/100 reflects below-average fundamentals overall. Without profitability, this remains speculative—suitable only for those with high risk tolerance and a long time horizon.

Bull Case

Improving fundamentals and sector tailwinds could drive meaningful earnings growth, compressing the effective multiple for patient investors. With $27 million in annual free cash flow (0.5% yield), management has ample capital for buybacks, dividends, or accretive acquisitions.

Bear Case

At 36x earnings, any growth disappointment triggers rapid multiple compression—a 20% earnings miss plus multiple contraction to 20x implies 40%+ downside. Regulatory changes, input cost inflation, or demand normalization represent underappreciated risks that could materially impact forward estimates.

Data from SEC filings. AI analysis is for educational purposes only — not investment advice. Scoring methodology · Disclaimer