Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE)

FairStock Score: 42/100 — MIXED

Key Financials

AI Analysis

AI-generated, general educational analysis — not personal investment advice.

I approach Lumentum as a manufacturer of optical and photonic components, a business that can have real switching costs when its parts are designed into customer systems. The demand cycle has been powerful: filed revenue went from $1.4B in FY2024 to $1.6B in FY2025 to $3.0B in FY2026, and quarterly filings show positive net income in fiscal Q1 2026 ($4.2M), Q2 2026 ($78.2M), and Q3 2026 ($144.2M). That suggests an operating turnaround. Yet the full FY2026 filing shows a net loss of $6.9B and diluted EPS of -$92.96, so something enormous overwhelmed those quarterly profits. At the $987.99 close on 2026-10-13, the data shows a market cap of $88.6B; FairStock calculates P/B of 18.85, negative P/E, ROE of -240.03%, ROCE of 5.82%, and FCF yield of just 0.3%. The balance sheet has D/E of 0.36 and an Altman Z-Score of 19.01, but the price is extraordinarily rich relative to $3.0B revenue and $300.1M trailing free cash flow. Piotroski is 6/9 and the FairStock Score is 50/100. Lynch category is TURNAROUND because the latest year had a loss after earlier profits. I would want proof that the loss is non-recurring and that ROCE and cash flow can support the valuation before calling this a margin of safety.

In plain English: Lumentum makes optical and photonic parts used in communications equipment and lasers. Sales have grown quickly, but the latest full-year filing showed a very large loss, and the stock price is very high compared with sales, profits, and cash flow. On those numbers, the price looks expensive rather than cheap.

The full AI analysis, bull and bear case and key monitorables are in FairStock Pro.

Data as of 2026-10-13 close · note generated 2026-10-15 · model deepseek-flash

Sources (SEC EDGAR): fiscal Q3 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-03-28) · fiscal Q2 2026 10-Q (period ended 2025-12-27) · fiscal Q1 2026 10-Q (period ended 2025-09-27) · fiscal Q3 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-03-29) · FY2026 10-K (period ended 2026-06-27) · FY2025 10-K (period ended 2025-06-28) · FY2024 10-K (period ended 2024-06-29)

Fundamentals from company filings and market-data providers; prices are end-of-day, not real-time. AI-generated analysis is general and educational — not personal investment advice. Scoring methodology · Score test · Disclaimer