Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. (KNX)

FairStock Score: 21/100 — RISKY

Key Financials

Strengths

• Generates $501 million in annual free cash flow (4.6% yield on market cap)
• Conservative balance sheet with debt-to-equity of just 0.38, providing financial flexibility
• Established organization with 37,100 employees providing operational scale

Concerns

• Trades significantly above Graham Number ($20) with negative 234% margin of safety—limited downside protection
• Currently unprofitable—sustained losses could lead to dilutive capital raises or balance sheet deterioration
• Revenue declining at 0.4% year-over-year signals potential demand weakness or market share loss

AI Analysis

Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. is a mid-cap industrials company valued at $10.9 billion. Revenue stands at $7.5 billion, though the company is currently unprofitable. From a quality standpoint, Knight-Swift shows Altman Z-Score of 1.8 in the grey zone and modest 1% ROE. On valuation, the stock is commanding a steep 160.4x multiple, with trades far above its Graham Number ($20) with no margin of safety. Growth dynamics show revenue growing at -0.4% and profit growth of -109.8%. The 1.3% dividend yield adds an income component for patient holders. Our composite FairStock Score of 21/100 reflects below-average fundamentals overall. Without profitability, this remains speculative—suitable only for those with high risk tolerance and a long time horizon.

Bull Case

Improving fundamentals and sector tailwinds could drive meaningful earnings growth, compressing the effective multiple for patient investors. With $501 million in annual free cash flow (4.6% yield), management has ample capital for buybacks, dividends, or accretive acquisitions.

Bear Case

At 160x earnings, any growth disappointment triggers rapid multiple compression—a 20% earnings miss plus multiple contraction to 20x implies 40%+ downside. Sluggish -0% growth in a large-cap company leaves the stock vulnerable to de-rating if the market rotates toward higher-growth opportunities.

Data from SEC filings. AI analysis is for educational purposes only — not investment advice. Scoring methodology · Disclaimer