St. Joe Company (The) Common Stock (JOE)

FairStock Score: 64/100 — STEADY

Key Financials

Strengths

• Generates $117 million in annual free cash flow (2.9% yield on market cap)
• Strong Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 indicating robust financial health across profitability, leverage, and efficiency metrics
• Solid return on equity of 15.3% above cost of capital
• Revenue growth of 23.5% demonstrates strong top-line momentum

Concerns

• Trades significantly above Graham Number ($24) with negative 185% margin of safety—limited downside protection
• Currently unprofitable—sustained losses could lead to dilutive capital raises or balance sheet deterioration

AI Analysis

St. Joe Company (The) Common Stock is a small-cap real estate company valued at $4.0 billion. Revenue stands at $513 million, though the company is currently unprofitable. From a quality standpoint, St. shows solid Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 and healthy Altman Z-Score of 4.0. On valuation, the stock is trading at a premium 35.0x earnings, with trades far above its Graham Number ($24) with no margin of safety. Growth dynamics show revenue growing at 23.5% and profit growth of 58.2%. Our composite FairStock Score of 64/100 reflects above-average fundamentals overall. Without profitability, this remains speculative—suitable only for those with high risk tolerance and a long time horizon.

Bull Case

St.'s 24% revenue growth trajectory could accelerate as it captures additional market share in the real estate sector. With $117 million in annual free cash flow (2.9% yield), management has ample capital for buybacks, dividends, or accretive acquisitions.

Bear Case

At 35x earnings, any growth disappointment triggers rapid multiple compression—a 20% earnings miss plus multiple contraction to 20x implies 40%+ downside. Regulatory changes, input cost inflation, or demand normalization represent underappreciated risks that could materially impact forward estimates.

Data from SEC filings. AI analysis is for educational purposes only — not investment advice. Scoring methodology · Disclaimer