International Paper Company (IP)

FairStock Score: 50/100 — MIXED

Key Financials

AI Analysis

AI-generated, general educational analysis — not personal investment advice.

I approach International Paper as a Graham-style asset investor, but I must separate a cheap-looking balance sheet from a weak earnings record. The company makes essential fiber-based packaging and has scale—fiscal year 2025 (period ended 2025-12-31) revenue was $23.6B—but that period produced a net loss of $3.5B and diluted EPS of -$6.95. Its scale and converting network offer some cost advantages, but commodity containerboard pricing limits a durable moat. The latest reported quarter, fiscal Q2 2026 (quarter ended 2026-06-30), showed revenue of $6.0B and a net loss of $12.0M, or -$0.02 per diluted share. Fiscal Q1 2026 (quarter ended 2026-03-31) was profitable at $60.0M, so this is not a one-way collapse, but the trend is fragile. At $31.81 on 2026-10-13, the market cap is $16.8B. The FairStock P/B is 1.17, so the price is not demanding relative to book value. However, the FairStock P/E is -5.90 because earnings are negative, ROCE is only 1.59%, and the Altman Z-Score of 0.82 signals financial stress. The Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 confirms weak fundamental momentum. Positives include trailing free cash flow of $492.0M, a 2.9% FCF yield, and a 5.36% dividend yield. But a 153.62 EV/EBITDA shows how depressed EBITDA is. The Lynch category is TURNAROUND—a loss in the latest year after earlier profits. Turnarounds can be lucrative, but only if the losses reverse and cash flow covers obligations. I would want evidence of sustained margin recovery before calling this a bargain rather than a value trap.

In plain English: It makes boxes and packaging from fiber. The business is weak right now because it lost money in the latest year and in the latest quarter, and it carries meaningful debt. At $31.81 on 2026-10-13, the stock looks inexpensive compared with the value of its assets minus debts, but because profits are negative it is not clearly cheap on earnings.

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Data as of 2026-10-13 close · note generated 2026-10-15 · model deepseek-flash

Sources (SEC EDGAR): fiscal Q2 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-06-30) · fiscal Q1 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-03-31) · fiscal Q4 2025 10-K (period ended 2025-12-31) · fiscal Q3 2025 10-K (period ended 2025-09-30) · FY2025 10-K (period ended 2025-12-31) · FY2024 10-K (period ended 2024-12-31) · FY2023 10-K (period ended 2023-12-31)

Fundamentals from company filings and market-data providers; prices are end-of-day, not real-time. AI-generated analysis is general and educational — not personal investment advice. Scoring methodology · Score test · Disclaimer