Ingredion Incorporated Common Stock (INGR)

FairStock Score: 77/100 — HIGH CONVICTION

Key Financials

Strengths

• Generates $358 million in annual free cash flow (5.0% yield on market cap)
• Solid return on equity of 18.1% above cost of capital
• Conservative balance sheet with debt-to-equity of just 0.46, providing financial flexibility
• Attractive 2.9% dividend yield providing steady income returns
• FairStock composite score of 77/100 places it in the top tier across value, quality, and momentum factors

Concerns

• Revenue declining at 2.4% year-over-year signals potential demand weakness or market share loss

AI Analysis

Ingredion Incorporated Common Stock is a small-cap consumer defensive company valued at $7.2 billion. The business generates $7.2 billion in annual revenue with a 2.3% net margin and $358 million in free cash flow. From a quality standpoint, Ingredion shows Altman Z-Score of 2.9 in the grey zone and adequate 18% ROE. On valuation, the stock is attractively valued at 10.1x earnings, with a modest 13% margin of safety vs Graham Number. Growth dynamics show revenue growing at -2.4% and profit growth of 73.7%. The 2.9% dividend yield adds an income component for patient holders. Our composite FairStock Score of 77/100 reflects strong fundamentals overall. This combination of reasonable valuation, solid returns, and conservative leverage makes it worth a closer look for value-oriented portfolios.

Bull Case

The market underappreciates Ingredion's consistent 18% ROE at just 10x earnings—a re-rating toward sector peers could unlock 30-50% upside. With $358 million in annual free cash flow (5.0% yield), management has ample capital for buybacks, dividends, or accretive acquisitions.

Bear Case

Macro headwinds or sector-specific disruption could pressure margins, particularly if competitive intensity increases in the consumer defensive space. Regulatory changes, input cost inflation, or demand normalization represent underappreciated risks that could materially impact forward estimates.

Data from SEC filings. AI analysis is for educational purposes only — not investment advice. Scoring methodology · Disclaimer