Heritage Insurance Holdings Inc. Common Stock (HRTG)

FairStock Score: 88/100 — HIGH CONVICTION

Key Financials

AI Analysis

AI-generated, general educational analysis — not personal investment advice.

I approach Heritage as a turnaround in a commodity-like insurance business. It sells residential property coverage across many coastal and storm-exposed states, so underwriting discipline and reinsurance matter more than brand. FairStock calls it a TURNAROUND because it returned to profit after a loss within three years, and the filed numbers show a sharp recovery: in FY2025, the year ended 2025-12-31, revenue was $847.3M and net income $195.6M, or diluted EPS $6.32, versus FY2024 net income $61.5M and diluted EPS $2.01. In fiscal Q2 2026, the quarter ended 2026-06-30, net income was $61.7M on revenue of $214.2M. FairStock's price-based metrics at the 2026-10-13 close of $36.21 show a P/E of 5.17, P/B of 1.84, ROE 45.28%, ROCE 7.38%, and PEG 0.02. The P/E and PEG suggest the market is not paying much for the recent earnings surge; the P/B says the shares are no longer cheap relative to accounting net worth. Debt/equity of 0.16 is modest, but insurance leverage and catastrophe exposure are the real risks; the data does not include the combined ratio, reserve development or reinsurance terms, nor bank measures like CET1 or NIM. Piotroski 6/9 is middling. The supplied FairStock revenue growth of -32.27% and profit growth of 228.56% hint at lumpy underwriting results rather than steady compounding. A Graham-style buyer would demand a margin of safety and evidence that returns are sustainable through a normal catastrophe cycle, not just a favorable one. I would watch book value, underwriting margin, and reserve prudence more than the headline P/E.

In plain English: Heritage sells home and residential property insurance in many U.S. states. Its recent profits have jumped sharply and the company carries little debt, but insurance results can swing with storms and claims. At $36.21 a share at the 2026-10-13 close, the stock looks inexpensive compared with recent earnings, though it is not cheap compared with the company's accounting net worth.

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Data as of 2026-10-13 close · note generated 2026-10-15 · model deepseek-flash

Sources (SEC EDGAR): fiscal Q2 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-06-30) · fiscal Q1 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-03-31) · fiscal Q4 2025 10-K (period ended 2025-12-31) · fiscal Q3 2025 10-K (period ended 2025-09-30) · FY2025 10-K/A (period ended 2025-12-31) · FY2024 10-K/A (period ended 2024-12-31) · FY2023 10-K/A (period ended 2023-12-31)

Fundamentals from company filings and market-data providers; prices are end-of-day, not real-time. AI-generated analysis is general and educational — not personal investment advice. Scoring methodology · Score test · Disclaimer