Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. Class A Common Stock (HOV)

FairStock Score: 31/100 — RISKY

Key Financials

AI Analysis

AI-generated, general educational analysis — not personal investment advice.

As a value investor, I start with business quality and price. Hovnanian is a residential homebuilder, a commodity-like cyclical business with little pricing power and no durable moat. The latest filed figures are troubling: in fiscal Q3 2026, the quarter ended 2026-07-31, revenue was $705.7 million and net income was -$1.8 million, or -$0.70 per diluted share. Fiscal Q2 2026 also lost money: net income -$284,000 and diluted EPS -$0.46. Fiscal Q1 2026 earned $20.9 million. Over the full year FY2025, net income fell to $63.9 million from $242.0 million in FY2024, while revenue was about $3.0 billion both years. That is an earnings collapse, and FairStock's profit growth figure of -110.84% confirms the direction. Financial health is weak: debt-to-equity 1.31, Altman Z-Score 1.09, Piotroski F-Score 2/9, ROE 2.10%, ROCE 1.34%. The balance sheet and returns do not suggest a fortress. On price, at the 2026-10-13 close of $104.01, FairStock's P/E is 100.01, P/B 0.88, and Graham Number $56.70, leaving a margin of safety of -83.44%; the market is paying a high multiple for depressed earnings. The one genuine positive is cash generation: trailing free cash flow of $197.8 million gives a 29.7% FCF yield by FairStock's calculation. But in a cyclical builder, that cash may reflect inventory timing rather than durable earning power. I prefer a clear moat, conservative balance sheet, and price below intrinsic value. Here, the quality is questionable, the balance sheet is stretched, and the price is not cheap on earnings. The FCF yield is the only number that makes me pause.

In plain English: Hovnanian builds and sells homes in the United States. The business looks weak right now: it lost money in the latest quarter, profits have fallen sharply from last year, and it carries a lot of debt. The stock price looks expensive compared with recent earnings, even though the company is still producing cash.

The full AI analysis, bull and bear case and key monitorables are in FairStock Pro.

Data as of 2026-10-13 close · note generated 2026-10-15 · model deepseek-flash

Sources (SEC EDGAR): fiscal Q3 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-07-31) · fiscal Q2 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-04-30) · fiscal Q1 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-01-31) · fiscal Q3 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-07-31) · FY2025 10-K (period ended 2025-10-31) · FY2024 10-K (period ended 2024-10-31) · FY2023 10-K (period ended 2023-10-31)

Fundamentals from company filings and market-data providers; prices are end-of-day, not real-time. AI-generated analysis is general and educational — not personal investment advice. Scoring methodology · Score test · Disclaimer