Harley-Davidson Inc. Common Stock (HOG)

FairStock Score: 57/100 — STEADY

Key Financials

Strengths

• Solid return on equity of 10.4% above cost of capital
• Attractive 3.2% dividend yield providing steady income returns

Concerns

• Currently unprofitable—sustained losses could lead to dilutive capital raises or balance sheet deterioration
• Revenue declining at 27.8% year-over-year signals potential demand weakness or market share loss
• Altman Z-Score of 1.3 places it in the financial distress zone—elevated bankruptcy risk

AI Analysis

Harley-Davidson Inc. Common Stock is a small-cap consumer cyclical company valued at $2.6 billion. Revenue stands at $4.5 billion, though the company is currently unprofitable. From a quality standpoint, Harley-Davidson shows distressed Altman Z-Score of 1.3 warrants caution and adequate 10% ROE. On valuation, the stock is deeply undervalued on a P/E basis at 8.4x, with offers a 44% margin of safety vs Graham Number of $42. Growth dynamics show revenue growing at -27.8% and profit growth of -138.9%. The 3.2% dividend yield adds an income component for patient holders. Our composite FairStock Score of 57/100 reflects mixed fundamentals overall. Without profitability, this remains speculative—suitable only for those with high risk tolerance and a long time horizon.

Bull Case

Improving fundamentals and sector tailwinds could drive meaningful earnings growth, compressing the effective multiple for patient investors. Operational leverage in the business model means incremental revenue growth could disproportionately boost bottom-line profitability.

Bear Case

Without a clear path to profitability, continued cash burn forces either dilutive equity raises or debt accumulation that destroys shareholder value. Regulatory changes, input cost inflation, or demand normalization represent underappreciated risks that could materially impact forward estimates.

Data from SEC filings. AI analysis is for educational purposes only — not investment advice. Scoring methodology · Disclaimer