Harley-Davidson Inc. Common Stock (HOG)

FairStock Score: 57/100 — STEADY

Key Financials

AI Analysis

AI-generated, general educational analysis — not personal investment advice.

I am a patient value investor, and Harley-Davidson is a classic cyclical brand. The name is famous, and that is a real competitive asset. But the filed numbers show a business under pressure. In fiscal 2025, revenue was $3.6B, net income was $338.7M, and diluted EPS was $2.78. That is down from fiscal 2024, when revenue was $4.1B, net income was $455.4M, and EPS was $3.44. The latest fiscal Q2 2026, ended 2026-06-30, showed revenue of $1.1B, net income of $79.8M, and EPS of $0.75, better than fiscal Q1 2026 but not a full recovery. Returns are weak: FairStock calculates ROE of 6.09% and ROCE of 1.62%. Trailing free cash flow is negative $133.1M, and FCF yield is -4.7%. Debt/equity is 0.74 and the Altman Z-Score is 1.71, so the balance sheet deserves attention. At the 2026-10-13 close of $27.47, FairStock shows a P/E of 15.26, P/B of 0.92, and EV/EBITDA of 6.67. The Graham Number is $33.39, implying a 17.73% margin of safety. The 2.89% dividend yield is a comfort but not a cure. Harley's moat is its brand and trademark licensing, but moats can erode when riders age and the cycle turns. The Lynch category is CYCLICAL — Recreational Vehicles because earnings follow the economic cycle. I would want evidence of stable revenue, positive free cash flow, and better returns before calling this a durable bargain.

In plain English: Harley-Davidson makes motorcycles, parts, clothing, and offers financing, led by a famous American brand. The business looks weak right now: sales and profits have fallen from a year earlier, and it is not generating cash after spending on operations and investments. At the recent price, the stock looks a little inexpensive compared with its accounting value and earnings, but the falling numbers mean it is not an obvious bargain.

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Data as of 2026-10-13 close · note generated 2026-10-15 · model deepseek-flash

Sources (SEC EDGAR): fiscal Q2 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-06-30) · fiscal Q1 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-03-31) · fiscal Q3 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-09-30) · fiscal Q2 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-06-30) · FY2025 10-K (period ended 2025-12-31) · FY2024 10-K (period ended 2024-12-31) · FY2023 10-K (period ended 2023-12-31)

Fundamentals from company filings and market-data providers; prices are end-of-day, not real-time. AI-generated analysis is general and educational — not personal investment advice. Scoring methodology · Score test · Disclaimer