Harmonic Inc. Common Stock (HLIT)

FairStock Score: 20/100 — RISKY

Key Financials

AI Analysis

AI-generated, general educational analysis — not personal investment advice.

I look for businesses that earn durable returns and sell at a sensible price. Harmonic supplies broadband access software and hardware to operators, and the filed numbers show a business in transition rather than a steady compounder. Revenue was $488.2M in fiscal 2024, then fell to $360.5M in fiscal 2025, while net income swung from a $39.2M profit in fiscal 2024 to a $43.3M loss in fiscal 2025. In fiscal Q2 2026, the quarter ended 2026-07-03, revenue was $133.5M but net income was negative $2.3M. That follows fiscal Q1 2026 net income of $7.3M, so the trend is uneven. FairStock's Lynch category calls it a TURNAROUND because the latest filed year had a loss after earlier profits. On quality, returns are modest: ROE 6.55%, ROCE 4.70%, and a Piotroski F-Score of 3/9. The Altman Z-Score of -1.28 suggests financial risk. Free cash flow of $53.9M and an FCF yield of 4.7% are positives, but net income is weak. Valuation is demanding: at the 2026-10-13 close of $10.53, FairStock's P/E is 43.87, P/B is 3.18, EV/EBITDA is 19.83, and the Graham Number is $4.23, leaving a negative 148.94% margin of safety. The market is paying for recovery despite a $1.1B market cap and a 52-week range of $8.47-$17.68. No clear moat is visible in the figures, and without durable profits, the turnaround remains unproven. I would want evidence that revenue growth and cash generation convert into consistent earnings before calling this a Graham-style bargain.

In plain English: Harmonic sells equipment and software that help broadband and cable operators deliver internet service. The business looks weak right now: it lost money in fiscal 2025 and lost $2.3 million in the latest quarter ended 2026-07-03, even though it had profits in fiscal 2023 and 2024. At the 2026-10-13 closing price of $10.53, the shares look expensive compared with the company’s small reported earnings and net worth, although it has been generating cash after running the business.

The full AI analysis, bull and bear case and key monitorables are in FairStock Pro.

Data as of 2026-10-13 close · note generated 2026-10-15 · model deepseek-flash

Sources (SEC EDGAR): fiscal Q2 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-07-03) · fiscal Q1 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-04-03) · fiscal Q3 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-09-26) · fiscal Q2 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-06-27) · FY2025 10-K (period ended 2025-12-31) · FY2024 10-K (period ended 2024-12-31) · FY2023 10-K (period ended 2023-12-31)

Fundamentals from company filings and market-data providers; prices are end-of-day, not real-time. AI-generated analysis is general and educational — not personal investment advice. Scoring methodology · Score test · Disclaimer