Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. Common Stock (HGV)

FairStock Score: 33/100 — RISKY

Key Financials

AI Analysis

AI-generated, general educational analysis — not personal investment advice.

I’m looking at Hilton Grand Vacations as a timeshare and resort operator. The reported numbers are uneven. Revenue climbed from $3.6B in FY2023 to $4.5B in both FY2024 and FY2025, but net income fell from $313.0M in FY2023 to $47.0M in FY2024 and $81.0M in FY2025. In fiscal Q1 2026, quarter ended 2026-03-31, revenue was $1.1B and net income $66.0M, or $0.79 per diluted share. Then fiscal Q2 2026, quarter ended 2026-06-30, revenue was $1.2B but net income shrank to $12.0M, or $0.15 per diluted share, versus $25.0M and $0.25 in fiscal Q2 2025. That is not a stable earnings stream. As a Buffett-style investor, I want a durable competitive advantage and a strong balance sheet. HGV has the Hilton brand and a sizable resort/club operation, but FairStock’s 3.35% ROCE and 11.46% ROE do not suggest exceptional economics. The D/E of 6.24 and Altman Z-score of 0.78 are warning signs. Cash generation is better: trailing FCF is $342.0M, a 12.5% FCF yield on the $2.7B market cap. That is the main attraction. Valuation is not obviously cheap. At the 2026-10-13 close of $35.18, FairStock’s P/E is 19.99 and P/B is 2.49. Its Graham Number is $23.65, leaving a -48.75% margin of safety. FairStock also classifies it as a SLOW GROWER — Shrinking, with profit down 17.6% a year over four years despite 17.9% revenue growth. I would need evidence that profits and leverage are improving before calling this a bargain.

In plain English: Hilton Grand Vacations sells and manages timeshare vacations under the Hilton name. The business still brings in revenue, but profit has gotten very thin and the company carries a lot of debt. At the recent price, the shares look full or expensive compared with its recent profits and asset value, even though it produces solid cash flow.

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Data as of 2026-10-13 close · note generated 2026-10-15 · model deepseek-flash

Sources (SEC EDGAR): fiscal Q2 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-06-30) · fiscal Q1 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-03-31) · fiscal Q3 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-09-30) · fiscal Q2 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-06-30) · FY2025 10-K (period ended 2025-12-31) · FY2024 10-K (period ended 2024-12-31) · FY2023 10-K (period ended 2023-12-31)

Fundamentals from company filings and market-data providers; prices are end-of-day, not real-time. AI-generated analysis is general and educational — not personal investment advice. Scoring methodology · Score test · Disclaimer