Warrior Met Coal Inc. Common Stock (HCC)

FairStock Score: 36/100 — MIXED

Key Financials

Strengths

• Conservative balance sheet with debt-to-equity of just 0.13, providing financial flexibility
• Altman Z-Score of 5.8 confirms minimal bankruptcy risk and strong solvency
• Revenue growth of 29.1% demonstrates strong top-line momentum

Concerns

• Trades significantly above Graham Number ($31) with negative 184% margin of safety—limited downside protection

AI Analysis

Warrior Met Coal Inc. Common Stock is a small-cap basic materials company valued at $4.7 billion. The business generates $1.3 billion in annual revenue with a 1.8% net margin. From a quality standpoint, Warrior shows solid Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 and Altman Z-Score of 5.8 confirms fortress-level solvency. On valuation, the stock is commanding a steep 82.1x multiple, with trades far above its Graham Number ($31) with no margin of safety. Growth dynamics show revenue growing at 29.1% and profit growth of 1921.3%. Our composite FairStock Score of 36/100 reflects below-average fundamentals overall. Investors should weigh the business quality against the current price and their own margin of safety requirements.

Bull Case

Warrior's 29% revenue growth trajectory could accelerate as it captures additional market share in the basic materials sector. Operational leverage in the business model means incremental revenue growth could disproportionately boost bottom-line profitability.

Bear Case

At 82x earnings, any growth disappointment triggers rapid multiple compression—a 20% earnings miss plus multiple contraction to 20x implies 40%+ downside. Regulatory changes, input cost inflation, or demand normalization represent underappreciated risks that could materially impact forward estimates.

Data from SEC filings. AI analysis is for educational purposes only — not investment advice. Scoring methodology · Disclaimer