Warrior Met Coal Inc. Common Stock (HCC)

FairStock Score: 36/100 — MIXED

Key Financials

AI Analysis

AI-generated, general educational analysis — not personal investment advice.

Warrior Met Coal is a commodity producer, and I start there: coking coal is sold at market prices, so the company is largely a price taker rather than a business with a durable moat. The cycle is written all over the record. In FY2023, revenue was $1.7B and net income $478.6M; by FY2025, revenue was $1.3B and net income $57.0M. The recent rebound is real—in fiscal Q2 2026, the quarter ended 2026-06-30, revenue was $509.7M and net income $87.4M, versus revenue of $297.5M and net income of $5.6M in fiscal Q2 2025—but I view that as cyclical recovery, not proof of steady compounding. The balance sheet is the best part: D/E is 0.10 and the Altman Z-Score is 6.01, with a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9. Still, returns are modest—ROE 10.04% and ROCE 5.17%—and trailing free cash flow was only $6.1M, a 0.1% FCF yield. At the $85.21 close on 2026-10-26, P/E is 20.48 and P/B is 1.96; the Graham Number is $63.71, implying the price is 34.67% above that conservative value. EV/EBITDA is 9.93. FairStock’s 36/100 score and the CYCLICAL category—earnings follow the economic cycle—fit my read. I see solid financial health but a fair-to-expensive commodity stock, not a margin-of-safety bargain.

In plain English: Warrior Met Coal mines coking coal used to make steel and sells much of it overseas. The business is very cyclical: recent quarterly profit rebounded strongly, but full-year earnings have fallen sharply since 2023 and cash generation is thin. At $85.21, the price looks expensive compared with the company's accounting value and conservative valuation math, so it does not look like a clear bargain.

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Data as of 2026-10-26 close · note generated 2026-10-28 · model deepseek-flash

Sources (SEC EDGAR): fiscal Q2 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-06-30) · fiscal Q1 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-03-31) · fiscal Q3 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-09-30) · fiscal Q2 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-06-30) · FY2025 10-K (period ended 2025-12-31) · FY2024 10-K (period ended 2024-12-31) · FY2023 10-K (period ended 2023-12-31)

Fundamentals from company filings and market-data providers; prices are end-of-day, not real-time. AI-generated analysis is general and educational — not personal investment advice. Scoring methodology · Score test · Disclaimer