Green Brick Partners Inc. Common Stock (GRBK)

FairStock Score: 70/100 — STEADY

Key Financials

Strengths

• Generates $80 million in annual free cash flow (2.6% yield on market cap)
• Strong Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 indicating robust financial health across profitability, leverage, and efficiency metrics
• Solid return on equity of 18.9% above cost of capital
• Conservative balance sheet with debt-to-equity of just 0.17, providing financial flexibility
• Altman Z-Score of 5.3 confirms minimal bankruptcy risk and strong solvency

Concerns

• Revenue declining at 2.6% year-over-year signals potential demand weakness or market share loss

AI Analysis

Green Brick Partners Inc. Common Stock is a small-cap consumer cyclical company valued at $3.1 billion. The business generates $2.1 billion in annual revenue with a 3.7% net margin and $80 million in free cash flow. From a quality standpoint, Green shows solid Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 and Altman Z-Score of 5.3 confirms fortress-level solvency. On valuation, the stock is attractively valued at 10.2x earnings, with a modest 13% margin of safety vs Graham Number. Growth dynamics show revenue growing at -2.6% and profit growth of -24.5%. Our composite FairStock Score of 70/100 reflects above-average fundamentals overall. This combination of reasonable valuation, solid returns, and conservative leverage makes it worth a closer look for value-oriented portfolios.

Bull Case

The market underappreciates Green's consistent 19% ROE at just 10x earnings—a re-rating toward sector peers could unlock 30-50% upside. With $80 million in annual free cash flow (2.6% yield), management has ample capital for buybacks, dividends, or accretive acquisitions.

Bear Case

Macro headwinds or sector-specific disruption could pressure margins, particularly if competitive intensity increases in the consumer cyclical space. Regulatory changes, input cost inflation, or demand normalization represent underappreciated risks that could materially impact forward estimates.

Data from SEC filings. AI analysis is for educational purposes only — not investment advice. Scoring methodology · Disclaimer