Green Plains Inc. Common Stock (GPRE)

FairStock Score: 52/100 — MIXED

Key Financials

AI Analysis

AI-generated, general educational analysis — not personal investment advice.

I am wary of commodity businesses, and Green Plains fits that mold: it produces ethanol, distiller grains, renewable corn oil, and protein, with no obvious pricing power or durable moat. The filed numbers tell a difficult story: in fiscal 2025, the year ended 2025-12-31, revenue was $189.0M, net loss was $121.3M, and diluted EPS was -$1.80. Fiscal 2024, ended 2024-12-31, produced revenue of $163.0M, net loss of $82.5M, and EPS of -$1.29; fiscal 2023, ended 2023-12-31, had revenue of $136.3M, net loss of $93.4M, and EPS of -$1.59. The computed Lynch category is none because of losses in each of the last four years. Yet fiscal Q2 2026, the quarter ended 2026-06-30, showed net income of $67.1M and diluted EPS of $0.83 on revenue of $45.9M, versus a fiscal Q2 2025 net loss of $72.2M and EPS of -$1.09. Net income exceeding revenue is a yellow flag; I would need repeated proof, not one quarter. At the 2026-10-13 close of $15.58, FairStock calculations put P/E at 9.33, P/B at 1.26, EV/EBITDA at 6.08, and FCF yield at 11.7%. The Graham Number is $21.59, implying a 27.84% margin of safety, and Piotroski is 7/9. But Altman Z of 1.18 signals financial distress risk, ROCE is only 4.15%, and debt/equity is 0.63. Cheapness may be real, but without a moat and consistent earnings, this is a speculation on ethanol margins, not a Buffett-style compounder.

In plain English: Green Plains turns corn into ethanol and related products like animal feed and corn oil. Its recent yearly results show losses, and the business depends on commodity prices, so it looks risky rather than strong. At the current price, some simple value measures suggest it may be cheap, but the risk is high.

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Data as of 2026-10-13 close · note generated 2026-10-15 · model deepseek-flash

Sources (SEC EDGAR): fiscal Q2 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-06-30) · fiscal Q1 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-03-31) · fiscal Q3 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-09-30) · fiscal Q2 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-06-30) · FY2025 10-K (period ended 2025-12-31) · FY2024 10-K (period ended 2024-12-31) · FY2023 10-K (period ended 2023-12-31)

Fundamentals from company filings and market-data providers; prices are end-of-day, not real-time. AI-generated analysis is general and educational — not personal investment advice. Scoring methodology · Score test · Disclaimer