Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK)

FairStock Score: 59/100 — STEADY

Key Financials

AI Analysis

AI-generated, general educational analysis — not personal investment advice.

I look for businesses selling below intrinsic value, but I also insist the business earns decent returns. Graphic Packaging is a consumer packaging maker, and at the 2026-10-13 close of $8.40 the FairStock metrics make it look like an asset play: price/book is 0.77, the Graham Number is $12.64, and the margin of safety is 33.54%. It also generates trailing free cash flow of $189.0M, a 7.6% FCF yield, and pays a 4.73% dividend. Those are the attractions. But the recent record is poor. Revenue has drifted from $9.4B in FY2023 to $8.8B in FY2024 to $8.6B in FY2025. Net income fell from $723.0M to $658.0M to $444.0M over those same years. In fiscal Q1 2026, the quarter ended 2026-03-31, the company lost $43.0M, or $0.14 per diluted share. In fiscal Q2 2026, the quarter ended 2026-06-30, net income was only $24.0M, or $0.08 per diluted share, on $2.2B revenue—a 1.10% margin—versus $104.0M, or $0.34 per diluted share, in fiscal Q2 2025, the quarter ended 2025-06-30. FairStock puts ROE at 6.01% and ROCE at 3.13%, weak for a capital-intensive manufacturer and a sign of limited competitive advantage. Debt is high at D/E 1.76, and the Altman Z-Score of 0.66 warns of financial stress. Piotroski is 6/9. The P/E of 12.92 and EV/EBITDA of 7.49 are not demanding, but cheapness without earning power can be a trap. If margins and cash flow stabilize, asset value and dividend could reward patience; if not, the low price may reflect deteriorating economics.

In plain English: Graphic Packaging makes paperboard packaging for food, drink, household and other consumer brands. The business looks weak right now: sales have slipped and profits have fallen sharply, with one recent quarter showing a loss and the next barely profitable. At $8.40 a share, the price looks low compared with the company's accounting value and the value suggested by its profits and cash flow, but that low price may reflect real troubles.

The full AI analysis, bull and bear case and key monitorables are in FairStock Pro.

Data as of 2026-10-13 close · note generated 2026-10-15 · model deepseek-flash

Sources (SEC EDGAR): fiscal Q2 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-06-30) · fiscal Q1 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-03-31) · fiscal Q3 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-09-30) · fiscal Q2 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-06-30) · FY2025 10-K (period ended 2025-12-31) · FY2024 10-K (period ended 2024-12-31) · FY2023 10-K (period ended 2023-12-31)

Fundamentals from company filings and market-data providers; prices are end-of-day, not real-time. AI-generated analysis is general and educational — not personal investment advice. Scoring methodology · Score test · Disclaimer