Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK)

FairStock Score: 59/100 — STEADY

Key Financials

Strengths

• Solid return on equity of 14.0% above cost of capital
• Attractive 4.8% dividend yield providing steady income returns
• Established organization with 23,000 employees providing operational scale

Concerns

• Altman Z-Score of 0.7 places it in the financial distress zone—elevated bankruptcy risk

AI Analysis

Graphic Packaging Holding Company is a small-cap consumer cyclical company valued at $2.8 billion. The business generates $8.6 billion in annual revenue with a 0.8% net margin. From a quality standpoint, Graphic shows distressed Altman Z-Score of 0.7 warrants caution and adequate 14% ROE. On valuation, the stock is deeply undervalued on a P/E basis at 6.4x, with offers a 51% margin of safety vs Graham Number of $19. Growth dynamics show revenue growing at 0.4% and profit growth of -48.5%. The 4.8% dividend yield adds an income component for patient holders. Our composite FairStock Score of 59/100 reflects mixed fundamentals overall. Investors should weigh the business quality against the current price and their own margin of safety requirements.

Bull Case

The market underappreciates Graphic's consistent 14% ROE at just 6x earnings—a re-rating toward sector peers could unlock 30-50% upside. Operational leverage in the business model means incremental revenue growth could disproportionately boost bottom-line profitability.

Bear Case

Macro headwinds or sector-specific disruption could pressure margins, particularly if competitive intensity increases in the consumer cyclical space. Regulatory changes, input cost inflation, or demand normalization represent underappreciated risks that could materially impact forward estimates.

Data from SEC filings. AI analysis is for educational purposes only — not investment advice. Scoring methodology · Disclaimer