Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. Common Stock (GO)

FairStock Score: 40/100 — MIXED

Key Financials

AI Analysis

AI-generated, general educational analysis — not personal investment advice.

As a Buffett-Graham investor, I start with durable earnings and balance-sheet strength. Grocery Outlet fails the first test. In fiscal FY2025, the year ended 2026-01-03, it reported revenue of $4.7B but a net loss of $224.9M, or diluted EPS of -$2.30. That followed profit of $39.5M in FY2024 and $79.4M in FY2023. The latest quarters are mixed: fiscal Q1 2026, ended 2026-04-04, lost $180.3M, while fiscal Q2 2026, ended 2026-07-04, earned $5.6M, or $0.06 per diluted share. Revenue is growing from FY2024's $4.4B to FY2025's $4.7B, but profit has collapsed. At the 2026-10-13 close, FairStock calculated P/E -3.18, P/B 1.50, ROE -38.06%, ROCE 1.40%, and a FairStock Score of 40/100. Trailing free cash flow was -$5.0M, and FCF yield was -0.4%. Debt is heavy with D/E 2.27, while Altman Z-Score 0.80 signals distress risk. The Piotroski F-Score of 8/9 offers a scrap of hope, but it cannot offset negative cash flow and weak returns. The P/B of 1.50 does not provide a classic Graham margin of safety when book value is producing losses. The Lynch category is TURNAROUND, a loss in the latest year after earlier profits. Turnarounds can pay, but only if the business stabilizes. I see a low-margin grocery retailer with no clear moat from these figures, so the price looks fair at best, not cheap.

In plain English: Grocery Outlet runs discount grocery stores through independently operated locations. Sales have been rising, but the company lost money in its latest full year and has high debt, so the business looks weak right now. At the 2026-10-13 price of $12.34, the stock does not look clearly cheap because profits are negative and cash flow is slightly negative.

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Data as of 2026-10-13 close · note generated 2026-10-15 · model deepseek-flash

Sources (SEC EDGAR): fiscal Q2 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-07-04) · fiscal Q1 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-04-04) · fiscal Q3 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-09-27) · fiscal Q2 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-06-28) · FY2025 10-K (period ended 2026-01-03) · FY2024 10-K (period ended 2024-12-28) · FY2023 10-K (period ended 2023-12-30)

Fundamentals from company filings and market-data providers; prices are end-of-day, not real-time. AI-generated analysis is general and educational — not personal investment advice. Scoring methodology · Score test · Disclaimer