Greenfire Resources Ltd. Common Shares (GFR)

FairStock Score: 45/100 — MIXED

Key Financials

AI Analysis

AI-generated, general educational analysis — not personal investment advice.

Greenfire Resources is a small oil-sands producer focused on the Hangingstone facilities in Alberta. It is a price-taker in a cyclical commodity business, so it has no obvious durable moat beyond its specific assets. I focus on balance-sheet strength, cash generation, and the price paid relative to assets and earnings. The balance sheet is a bright spot: debt-to-equity is 0.03, and FairStock's Altman Z-Score is 3.68, suggesting limited near-term solvency risk. In the 2026-Q2 quarter, Greenfire reported revenue of $179.4 million and net income of $53.5 million, a 29.8% margin. That shows the operation can earn money at current conditions. But the trailing picture is less kind. Trailing EPS is -$0.26, so FairStock's P/E is -26.08 at the $6.78 close on 2026-10-13. ROE is -3.63%, ROCE is only 0.48%, and trailing free cash flow is -$59.9 million, a -8.0% FCF yield per FairStock. That gap between quarterly profit and trailing cash burn is the central issue. Valuation is not demanding on book value, with P/B at 1.04, but EV/EBITDA of 13.56 is not a deep-value multiple for a commodity producer, and the FairStock Score is 45/100. The Lynch category is 'none' because only 0 years of filed results are available and FairStock needs 3. Without a multi-year record, I cannot judge whether growth or margins are durable. This is a speculative, asset-heavy E&P with low leverage and recent profitability, but weak trailing returns and negative free cash flow. I would want a wider margin of safety or evidence of sustained cash generation before calling it a Graham-style bargain.

In plain English: Greenfire Resources is a small Canadian oil producer in the Alberta oil sands, operating the Hangingstone facilities. The latest reported quarter showed a profit, and the company has very little debt, but it has lost money over the past year and used more cash than it generated. At $6.78, the shares trade near their accounting net asset value, so the price looks fair rather than clearly cheap given the weak recent numbers.

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Data as of 2026-10-13 close · note generated 2026-10-15 · model deepseek-flash

Fundamentals from company filings and market-data providers; prices are end-of-day, not real-time. AI-generated analysis is general and educational — not personal investment advice. Scoring methodology · Score test · Disclaimer