Geo Group Inc (The) REIT (GEO)

FairStock Score: 75/100 — HIGH CONVICTION

Key Financials

AI Analysis

AI-generated, general educational analysis — not personal investment advice.

I look for understandable businesses with durable advantages and conservative balance sheets. GEO provides secure facilities, processing centers, and monitoring services to governments, which can produce sticky contracts and high switching costs—a modest moat. In fiscal Q2 2026, the quarter ended 2026-06-30, revenue was $732.1M, net income $47.5M, and diluted EPS $0.36, versus revenue $636.2M, net income $29.1M, and diluted EPS $0.21 in fiscal Q2 2025. Full-year FY2025 revenue was $2.6B, net income $254.4M, and diluted EPS $1.82, compared with FY2024 revenue $2.4B, net income $32.0M, and diluted EPS $0.22. So earnings are recovering. However, the balance sheet is leveraged: FairStock shows debt-to-equity of 1.06, an Altman Z-score of 1.65, ROCE of 6.00%, and trailing free cash flow of only $26.4M, a 0.6% FCF yield. That is a thin cash cushion for a $4.2B market cap. At the 2026-10-13 close of $32.19, FairStock calculates a P/E of 15.18, P/B of 2.76, and a Graham Number of $23.38, meaning the price is 37.68% above that defensive value. The PEG ratio of 0.16 looks cheap if growth persists, but low free cash flow and high leverage make me cautious. A FairStock Score of 75/100 and Piotroski F-Score of 7/9 are positives. The Lynch category is STALWART—profit growth of 17.6% a year over five years and revenue growth of 2.3%—steady, not dynamic. I would want debt reduction and better free cash flow before calling it a bargain.

In plain English: GEO runs prisons, processing centers, and monitoring services for governments. The business is profitable and has grown lately, but it owes a lot of money and turns little of its sales into spare cash. At the recent price, the shares look more expensive than what its profits and accounting value would suggest, so they are not an obvious bargain.

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Data as of 2026-10-13 close · note generated 2026-10-15 · model deepseek-flash

Sources (SEC EDGAR): fiscal Q2 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-06-30) · fiscal Q1 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-03-31) · fiscal Q3 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-09-30) · fiscal Q2 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-06-30) · FY2025 10-K (period ended 2025-12-31) · FY2024 10-K (period ended 2024-12-31) · FY2023 10-K (period ended 2023-12-31)

Fundamentals from company filings and market-data providers; prices are end-of-day, not real-time. AI-generated analysis is general and educational — not personal investment advice. Scoring methodology · Score test · Disclaimer