Geo Group Inc (The) REIT (GEO)

FairStock Score: 75/100 — HIGH CONVICTION

Key Financials

Strengths

• Solid return on equity of 17.9% above cost of capital
• Revenue growth of 16.4% demonstrates strong top-line momentum
• FairStock composite score of 75/100 places it in the top tier across value, quality, and momentum factors
• Established organization with 18,000 employees providing operational scale

Concerns

• Altman Z-Score of 1.1 places it in the financial distress zone—elevated bankruptcy risk

AI Analysis

Geo Group Inc (The) REIT is a small-cap industrials company valued at $2.5 billion. The business generates $2.6 billion in annual revenue with a 1.2% net margin. From a quality standpoint, Geo shows distressed Altman Z-Score of 1.1 warrants caution and adequate 18% ROE. On valuation, the stock is attractively valued at 10.2x earnings, with a modest 12% margin of safety vs Graham Number. Growth dynamics show revenue growing at 16.4% and profit growth of 105.1%. Our composite FairStock Score of 75/100 reflects strong fundamentals overall. Investors should weigh the business quality against the current price and their own margin of safety requirements.

Bull Case

Geo's 16% revenue growth trajectory could accelerate as it captures additional market share in the industrials sector. Operational leverage in the business model means incremental revenue growth could disproportionately boost bottom-line profitability.

Bear Case

Macro headwinds or sector-specific disruption could pressure margins, particularly if competitive intensity increases in the industrials space. Regulatory changes, input cost inflation, or demand normalization represent underappreciated risks that could materially impact forward estimates.

Data from SEC filings. AI analysis is for educational purposes only — not investment advice. Scoring methodology · Disclaimer