Freshpet Inc. Common Stock (FRPT)

FairStock Score: 52/100 — MIXED

Key Financials

AI Analysis

AI-generated, general educational analysis — not personal investment advice.

I see Freshpet as a real turnaround, but not a Graham bargain. FairStock's Lynch category is TURNAROUND—returned to profit after a loss within the last three years—and that fits. In fiscal 2023, it lost $33.6 million on $766.9 million of revenue. By fiscal 2025, revenue was $1.1 billion and net income $139.1 million, up from fiscal 2024 revenue of $975.2 million and net income $46.9 million. In fiscal Q2 2026, the quarter ended 2026-06-30, revenue was $305.6 million, net income $19.5 million, and diluted EPS $0.39, versus $264.7 million, $16.4 million, and $0.33 in fiscal Q2 2025, the quarter ended 2025-06-30. That is genuine growth. The branded Freshpet fridge network and fresh pet-food niche give it some shelf presence and habit, though I would not call it a wide moat yet. Financial health is decent: FairStock calculations show D/E of 0.40, Altman Z-Score of 3.76, Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, and ROE of 17.62%. But ROCE of 3.49% is weak, a reminder that the business consumes capital. Free cash flow is $61.0 million trailing, only a 1.9% FCF yield against a $3.2 billion market cap. At the 2026-10-13 close of $66.16, FairStock puts P/E at 17.14, P/B at 2.60, PEG at 0.90, and EV/EBITDA at 12.33. FairStock's Graham Number is $47.01, so the price sells at a -40.74% margin of safety. The FairStock Score is 52/100. I like the growth and balance sheet, but the price already reflects much of the turnaround. Watch whether fiscal Q1 2026, quarter ended 2026-03-31, net income of $48.5 million and fiscal Q3 2025, quarter ended 2025-09-30, net income of $101.7 million repeat, or whether fiscal Q2 2026's $19.5 million is closer to normal.

In plain English: Freshpet makes fresh meals and treats for dogs and cats, sold through its own branded refrigerators and stores. The business looks stronger than a few years ago: sales are growing and it has swung from losses to profits, with more growth in the latest reported quarter. The stock price looks a bit expensive compared with the company's current cash generation and asset value, though not extreme if the growth continues.

The full AI analysis, bull and bear case and key monitorables are in FairStock Pro.

Data as of 2026-10-13 close · note generated 2026-10-15 · model deepseek-flash

Sources (SEC EDGAR): fiscal Q2 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-06-30) · fiscal Q1 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-03-31) · fiscal Q3 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-09-30) · fiscal Q2 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-06-30) · FY2025 10-K (period ended 2025-12-31) · FY2024 10-K (period ended 2024-12-31) · FY2023 10-K (period ended 2023-12-31)

Fundamentals from company filings and market-data providers; prices are end-of-day, not real-time. AI-generated analysis is general and educational — not personal investment advice. Scoring methodology · Score test · Disclaimer