Fossil Group Inc. Common Stock (FOSL)

FairStock Score: 25/100 — RISKY

Key Financials

AI Analysis

AI-generated, general educational analysis — not personal investment advice.

As a Buffett-Graham investor, I look first for a durable business earning good returns on capital. Fossil fails that test. In fiscal 2025, the year ended 2026-01-03, revenue was $1.0B and net income was -$77.8M, or -$1.45 per diluted share. In fiscal 2024, the year ended 2024-12-28, revenue was $1.1B and net loss was $106.3M; in fiscal 2023, the year ended 2023-12-30, revenue was $1.4B and net loss was $156.7M. Sales are shrinking and losses persist. The latest quarter, fiscal Q2 2026 ended 2026-07-04, had revenue of $209.7M and a net loss of $10.6M, or -$0.18 per diluted share. That is worse than fiscal Q2 2025, ended 2025-07-05, when the net loss was $2.1M. Free cash flow is negative $41.2M trailing twelve months, a -9.7% FCF yield. Debt-to-equity is 4.62, the Altman Z-score is 0.77, and the Piotroski F-score is 3/9. Those are distress signals, not a margin of safety. At the $7.15 close on 2026-10-13, FairStock shows a $422.8M market cap, P/B of 4.50, P/E of -5.63, ROE of -66.53%, and ROCE of 1.80%. A negative P/E means there are no positive earnings to value. The stock trades near its 52-week high of $7.39, despite the computed Lynch category showing losses in each of the last four years. Fashion accessories may have brand appeal, but the numbers show weak cash generation and a leveraged balance sheet. Graham would want assets and earnings; Buffett would want a moat and owner earnings. I see neither here at this price.

In plain English: Fossil designs, makes, and sells watches, jewelry, handbags, and other fashion accessories. It has lost money for several years, sales are shrinking, and it spends more cash than it brings in. At $7.15, the stock looks expensive relative to its weak profits and balance sheet.

The full AI analysis, bull and bear case and key monitorables are in FairStock Pro.

Data as of 2026-10-13 close · note generated 2026-10-15 · model deepseek-flash

Sources (SEC EDGAR): fiscal Q2 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-07-04) · fiscal Q1 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-04-04) · fiscal Q3 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-10-04) · fiscal Q2 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-07-05) · FY2025 10-K (period ended 2026-01-03) · FY2024 10-K (period ended 2024-12-28) · FY2023 10-K (period ended 2023-12-30)

Fundamentals from company filings and market-data providers; prices are end-of-day, not real-time. AI-generated analysis is general and educational — not personal investment advice. Scoring methodology · Score test · Disclaimer