Forestar Group Inc Common Stock (FOR)

FairStock Score: 74/100 — STEADY

Key Financials

AI Analysis

AI-generated, general educational analysis — not personal investment advice.

As a value investor, I look for a price that leaves room for error. Forestar develops residential lots and sells them to homebuilders, with D.R. Horton as parent—a tied demand source but also a concentration. The company is not a wide-moat enterprise; land development is cyclical and local. Still, at $25.41 on 2026-10-13, FairStock shows a 0.70× price-to-book and a 7.63 P/E. The Lynch category is ASSET PLAY because it trades at 0.70× book. FairStock's Graham Number is $52.22, implying about 51.34% margin of safety. Trailing free cash flow was $282.9M, a 21.8% FCF yield—very high. Financial health is mixed: D/E 0.44, FairStock's Piotroski F-Score is 7/9, but its Altman Z-Score is 1.24, which suggests balance-sheet risk. FairStock's ROE is 9.64% and ROCE is 4.21%, so returns are modest. Growth has been uneven. In FY2025, ended 2025-09-30, net income was $167.9M and diluted EPS $3.29, down from FY2024's $203.4M and $4.00. But fiscal Q3 2026, quarter ended 2026-06-30, showed net income of $35.9M and diluted EPS $0.70 versus $32.9M and $0.65 in fiscal Q3 2025. That sequential recovery helps. The stock is statistically cheap, and cash generation is strong. But asset plays need assets to be real and demand to hold. I would want the discount to book and earnings to persist without leverage or parent-related risks eroding it.

In plain English: Forestar buys land and prepares it for homebuilding, then sells the finished lots to homebuilders; it is owned by D.R. Horton. The company is profitable and produces free cash, but earnings have been uneven. At the recent share price, the stock looks inexpensive compared with its accounting value and profits, though housing cycles and debt are real risks.

The full AI analysis, bull and bear case and key monitorables are in FairStock Pro.

Data as of 2026-10-13 close · note generated 2026-10-15 · model deepseek-flash

Sources (SEC EDGAR): fiscal Q3 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-06-30) · fiscal Q2 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-03-31) · fiscal Q1 2026 10-Q (period ended 2025-12-31) · fiscal Q3 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-06-30) · FY2025 10-K (period ended 2025-09-30) · FY2024 10-K (period ended 2024-09-30) · FY2023 10-K (period ended 2023-09-30)

Fundamentals from company filings and market-data providers; prices are end-of-day, not real-time. AI-generated analysis is general and educational — not personal investment advice. Scoring methodology · Score test · Disclaimer