Firefly Aerospace Inc. Common Stock (FLY)

FairStock Score: 45/100 — MIXED

Key Financials

AI Analysis

AI-generated, general educational analysis — not personal investment advice.

I am wary of businesses that must consume capital to grow. Firefly Aerospace operates in space and defense, offering launch and spacecraft services, but the financial record is that of a promising, cash-hungry venture rather than a proven compounding machine. In fiscal 2025, the year ended 2025-12-31, revenue was $159.9M and net loss $298.3M; fiscal 2024 had revenue $60.8M and net loss $231.1M. Revenue is rising fast, but losses remain enormous. In fiscal Q2 2026, the quarter ended 2026-06-30, revenue was $117.7M and net loss $92.3M, or diluted EPS -$0.57; fiscal Q1 2026, the quarter ended 2026-03-31, had net loss $96.7M. The company has not earned a profit in the last three years, so the computed Lynch category is none. FairStock's calculations at the $18.34 close on 2026-10-13 show P/E -3.71, P/B 2.49, ROE -57.95%, ROCE -18.07%, and FCF yield -10.6%. A debt-to-equity ratio of 0.04 and an Altman Z-Score of 3.64 suggest leverage is not the immediate problem; cash burn is. The Piotroski F-Score is 5/9, and FairStock Score is 45/100. I see no durable moat yet, only contracts and execution risk. Growth is real, but it is being bought with negative free cash flow. Without a path to sustainable profits, the price is not a Graham-style bargain, even after falling from the 52-week high of $62.17. I would wait for evidence of positive cash generation and durable margins before calling this investment-grade.

In plain English: Firefly Aerospace makes rockets and space systems for government and commercial customers. Sales are growing quickly, but the company is still losing a lot of money and burning cash. At $18.34, the stock looks speculative and not cheap compared with its current losses and weak profits.

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Data as of 2026-10-13 close · note generated 2026-10-15 · model deepseek-flash

Sources (SEC EDGAR): fiscal Q2 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-06-30) · fiscal Q1 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-03-31) · fiscal Q3 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-09-30) · fiscal Q2 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-06-30) · FY2025 10-K (period ended 2025-12-31) · FY2024 10-K (period ended 2024-12-31) · FY2023 10-K (period ended 2023-12-31)

Fundamentals from company filings and market-data providers; prices are end-of-day, not real-time. AI-generated analysis is general and educational — not personal investment advice. Scoring methodology · Score test · Disclaimer