National Vision Holdings Inc. Common Stock (EYE)

FairStock Score: 40/100 — MIXED

Key Financials

Strengths

• Generates $110 million in annual free cash flow (5.6% yield on market cap)
• Revenue growth of 15.1% demonstrates strong top-line momentum
• Established organization with 13,138 employees providing operational scale

Concerns

• Trades significantly above Graham Number ($10) with negative 160% margin of safety—limited downside protection
• Altman Z-Score of 1.4 places it in the financial distress zone—elevated bankruptcy risk

AI Analysis

National Vision Holdings Inc. Common Stock is a micro-cap consumer cyclical company valued at $2.0 billion. The business generates $2.0 billion in annual revenue with a 0.2% net margin and $110 million in free cash flow. From a quality standpoint, National shows solid Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 and distressed Altman Z-Score of 1.4 warrants caution. On valuation, the stock is commanding a steep 65.3x multiple, with trades far above its Graham Number ($10) with no margin of safety. Growth dynamics show revenue growing at 15.1% and profit growth of 111.6%. Our composite FairStock Score of 40/100 reflects below-average fundamentals overall. Investors should weigh the business quality against the current price and their own margin of safety requirements.

Bull Case

National's 15% revenue growth trajectory could accelerate as it captures additional market share in the consumer cyclical sector. With $110 million in annual free cash flow (5.6% yield), management has ample capital for buybacks, dividends, or accretive acquisitions.

Bear Case

At 65x earnings, any growth disappointment triggers rapid multiple compression—a 20% earnings miss plus multiple contraction to 20x implies 40%+ downside. Regulatory changes, input cost inflation, or demand normalization represent underappreciated risks that could materially impact forward estimates.

Data from SEC filings. AI analysis is for educational purposes only — not investment advice. Scoring methodology · Disclaimer