Expand Energy Corporation (EXE)

FairStock Score: 72/100 — STEADY

Key Financials

AI Analysis

AI-generated, general educational analysis — not personal investment advice.

Expand Energy is an independent natural gas producer with shale positions in Appalachia and Louisiana/Texas. I respect the cash generation: on FairStock's figures at the 2026-10-26 close, trailing free cash flow was $2.5B, an 11.4% FCF yield on a $21.8B market cap, and debt/equity was only 0.19. The balance sheet is a real cushion in a cyclical industry. But a commodity producer rarely has a durable moat; these figures do not disclose a verified low-cost advantage, so price realizations matter enormously. Profitability has recovered: in fiscal 2025, ended 2025-12-31, net income was $1.8B versus a $714.0M net loss in fiscal 2024, ended 2024-12-31, which is why FairStock classifies it as a TURNAROUND. The recovery is not yet smooth. In fiscal Q2 2026, ended 2026-06-30, revenue was $3.0B and net income $522.0M, down from $3.7B and $968.0M in fiscal Q2 2025, ended 2025-06-30. FairStock's P/E is 8.11, P/B 1.14, EV/EBITDA 3.69 and Graham Number $147.02, implying a 36.59% margin of safety at that close; but low multiples on cyclical gas earnings can be traps if gas prices fall. ROCE of 8.49% is modest, Piotroski 5/9 is middling, and Altman 1.97 gives no great margin. I would want the turnaround sustained through the cycle before calling it a high-quality compounder. The price looks statistically cheap, but the business quality is ordinary and commodity-dependent.

In plain English: Expand Energy produces natural gas and related liquids from shale fields in the United States. Earnings move with gas prices, and the latest quarter was weaker than a year earlier, but the company is profitable and generates a lot of cash. At the recent price, the shares look inexpensive compared with profits and accounting value, though commodity swings make that less certain.

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Data as of 2026-10-26 close · note generated 2026-10-28 · model deepseek-flash

Sources (SEC EDGAR): fiscal Q2 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-06-30) · fiscal Q1 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-03-31) · fiscal Q3 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-09-30) · fiscal Q2 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-06-30) · FY2025 10-K (period ended 2025-12-31) · FY2024 10-K (period ended 2024-12-31) · FY2023 10-K (period ended 2023-12-31)

Fundamentals from company filings and market-data providers; prices are end-of-day, not real-time. AI-generated analysis is general and educational — not personal investment advice. Scoring methodology · Score test · Disclaimer