Etsy Inc. Common Stock (ETSY)

FairStock Score: 35/100 — MIXED

Key Financials

AI Analysis

AI-generated, general educational analysis — not personal investment advice.

I look for durable businesses with consistent earnings and a margin of safety. Etsy is a two-sided marketplace connecting artisans and buyers, and that network effect is a real asset; Depop adds resale fashion exposure. But the numbers are lumpy. In fiscal Q2 2026, the quarter ended 2026-06-30, revenue was $668.3M and net income was a loss of $46.6M, or diluted EPS of -$0.36. That followed fiscal Q1 2026, ended 2026-03-31, with net income of $69.7M and diluted EPS of $0.60. For the full fiscal year 2025, ended 2025-12-31, revenue was $2.9B and net income was $163.0M, down from $303.3M in fiscal year 2024, ended 2024-12-31, and $307.6M in fiscal year 2023, ended 2023-12-31. So growth is modest and profitability is deteriorating. On the positive side, trailing-twelve-month free cash flow is $613.5M, an 8.4% FCF yield on the $7.3B market cap, and FairStock-calculated ROCE is 10.53%. Still, at the 2026-10-13 close of $79.28, the FairStock P/E is 23.18 and EV/EBITDA is 15.72—not a bargain if earnings stay depressed. The FairStock-calculated Altman Z-Score of 0.28 and Piotroski F-Score of 5/9 add caution, and FairStock Score is 35/100. FairStock's Lynch rule calls it a TURNAROUND—returned to profit after a loss within the last three years. I would need evidence that the recent loss is temporary and that marketplace economics can produce predictable profit before calling this a safe value.

In plain English: Etsy runs online marketplaces where people buy and sell handmade, vintage, and secondhand goods, including Depop for fashion resale. The business still generates cash, but profits have weakened: it lost money in the latest quarter and annual profit fell from earlier levels. At the recent price, the shares look roughly fair to a bit expensive for a company whose earnings are uneven, not an obvious bargain.

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Data as of 2026-10-13 close · note generated 2026-10-15 · model deepseek-flash

Sources (SEC EDGAR): fiscal Q2 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-06-30) · fiscal Q1 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-03-31) · fiscal Q3 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-09-30) · fiscal Q2 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-06-30) · FY2025 10-K (period ended 2025-12-31) · FY2024 10-K (period ended 2024-12-31) · FY2023 10-K (period ended 2023-12-31)

Fundamentals from company filings and market-data providers; prices are end-of-day, not real-time. AI-generated analysis is general and educational — not personal investment advice. Scoring methodology · Score test · Disclaimer