Evolution Petroleum Corporation Inc. Common Stock (EPM)

FairStock Score: 39/100 — MIXED

Key Financials

AI Analysis

AI-generated, general educational analysis — not personal investment advice.

Evolution Petroleum is a tiny oil-and-gas property owner—only 11 employees—so its fortunes depend on commodity prices and the quality of its wells, not on any durable pricing power. That is not a moat; it is a price-taker's business. Looking at the filed figures, fiscal 2024 (ended 2024-06-30) produced revenue of $85.9M and net income of $4.1M, EPS $0.12. Fiscal 2025 revenue was $85.8M, net income $1.5M, EPS $0.03. Fiscal 2026 revenue was $86.3M, but net income turned to a loss of $2.4M, EPS -$0.08. The swing was ugly: in fiscal Q3 2026 (quarter ended 2026-03-31), revenue was $20.2M and net loss $8.9M, EPS -$0.26, though fiscal Q1 and Q2 2026 had small profits. Trailing FCF is -$6.8M, and FairStock's FCF yield is -4.5%, while the stock closed at $3.76 on 2026-10-13 with a 12.44% dividend yield. That dividend looks generous, but negative free cash flow means it needs either recovery or balance-sheet support. The balance sheet is leveraged at D/E 0.94, and FairStock's Altman Z-Score of 1.08 is in distress territory. Piotroski is 7/9, which offers some encouragement. FairStock ROE is -3.67% and ROCE 0.24%, confirming weak returns. Valuation is not compelling: P/B 2.24, EV/EBITDA 8.60, and a negative P/E. By Lynch's computed category, this is a turnaround—a loss after earlier profits—not a steady compounder. I would want to see several quarters of positive FCF and debt reduction before treating it as a value opportunity.

In plain English: Evolution Petroleum owns oil and gas properties in the United States. The business looks weak right now: it lost money in its latest fiscal year and is not generating positive cash flow. At $3.76, the price does not look cheap compared with those weak results, and the high dividend may be difficult to maintain.

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Data as of 2026-10-13 close · note generated 2026-10-15 · model deepseek-flash

Sources (SEC EDGAR): fiscal Q3 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-03-31) · fiscal Q2 2026 10-Q (period ended 2025-12-31) · fiscal Q1 2026 10-Q (period ended 2025-09-30) · fiscal Q3 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-03-31) · FY2026 10-K (period ended 2026-06-30) · FY2025 10-K (period ended 2025-06-30) · FY2024 10-K (period ended 2024-06-30)

Fundamentals from company filings and market-data providers; prices are end-of-day, not real-time. AI-generated analysis is general and educational — not personal investment advice. Scoring methodology · Score test · Disclaimer