Evolution Petroleum Corporation Inc. Common Stock (EPM)

FairStock Score: 39/100 — MIXED

Key Financials

Strengths

• Attractive 10.7% dividend yield providing steady income returns

Concerns

• Trades significantly above Graham Number ($2) with negative 156% margin of safety—limited downside protection
• Altman Z-Score of 1.3 places it in the financial distress zone—elevated bankruptcy risk

AI Analysis

Evolution Petroleum Corporation Inc. Common Stock is a micro-cap energy company valued at $167 million. The business generates $86 million in annual revenue with a 1.2% net margin. From a quality standpoint, Evolution shows solid Piotroski F-Score of 6/9 and distressed Altman Z-Score of 1.3 warrants caution. On valuation, the stock is commanding a steep 60.0x multiple, with trades far above its Graham Number ($2) with no margin of safety. Growth dynamics show revenue growing at 2.0% and profit growth of 158.4%. The 10.7% dividend yield adds an income component for patient holders. Our composite FairStock Score of 39/100 reflects below-average fundamentals overall. Investors should weigh the business quality against the current price and their own margin of safety requirements.

Bull Case

Improving fundamentals and sector tailwinds could drive meaningful earnings growth, compressing the effective multiple for patient investors. Operational leverage in the business model means incremental revenue growth could disproportionately boost bottom-line profitability.

Bear Case

At 60x earnings, any growth disappointment triggers rapid multiple compression—a 20% earnings miss plus multiple contraction to 20x implies 40%+ downside. Regulatory changes, input cost inflation, or demand normalization represent underappreciated risks that could materially impact forward estimates.

Data from SEC filings. AI analysis is for educational purposes only — not investment advice. Scoring methodology · Disclaimer