Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR)

FairStock Score: 60/100 — STEADY

Key Financials

AI Analysis

AI-generated, general educational analysis — not personal investment advice.

I approach Dollar Tree as a Graham-style bargain hunter and a Buffett-style business owner, and the first fact is that this is a computed TURNAROUND: the Lynch rule labels it that because it returned to profit after a loss within the last three years. The filed record supports the swing: in FY2024 (period ended 2025-02-01) net income was -$3.0B and diluted EPS -$14.03, while in FY2025 (period ended 2026-01-31) net income was $1.3B and diluted EPS $6.22. In fiscal Q2 2026 (quarter ended 2026-08-01), revenue was $4.9B, net income $514.5M, and diluted EPS $2.70, versus net income of $188.4M in fiscal Q2 2025 (quarter ended 2025-08-02). That is real improvement. FairStock shows trailing free cash flow of $2.0B, an 8.4% FCF yield on the $23.4B market cap, and a Piotroski F-score of 7/9. Still, I cannot ignore the balance sheet: debt-to-equity is 2.24, ROCE is only 8.26%, and Altman Z is 2.23. ROE of 46.03% looks spectacular but is flattered by leverage. At the 2026-10-26 close of $124.92, FairStock's P/E is 15.31, P/B is 6.84, EV/EBITDA is 10.34, and PEG is 0.09, so the earnings multiple is not demanding if the turnaround lasts. But Graham Number is $57.89, giving a negative margin of safety of -116.46%; the price is far above that conservative anchor. My conclusion: improving operations and cash flow, but not a classic Graham bargain.

In plain English: Dollar Tree runs discount stores selling everyday household goods, food, toys, and seasonal items. The business has returned to profit and generates solid cash, but it carries a lot of debt and had big losses in the recent past. At $124.92, the shares look closer to fair or full price than cheap based on the company's earnings and balance sheet.

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Data as of 2026-10-26 close · note generated 2026-10-28 · model deepseek-flash

Sources (SEC EDGAR): fiscal Q2 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-08-01) · fiscal Q1 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-05-02) · fiscal Q3 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-11-01) · fiscal Q2 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-08-02) · FY2025 10-K (period ended 2026-01-31) · FY2024 10-K (period ended 2025-02-01) · FY2023 10-K (period ended 2024-02-03)

Fundamentals from company filings and market-data providers; prices are end-of-day, not real-time. AI-generated analysis is general and educational — not personal investment advice. Scoring methodology · Score test · Disclaimer