Casella Waste Systems Inc. Class A Common Stock (CWST)

FairStock Score: 23/100 — RISKY

Key Financials

Strengths

• Generates $114 million in annual free cash flow (2.2% yield on market cap)

Concerns

• Trades significantly above Graham Number ($8) with negative 911% margin of safety—limited downside protection
• Currently unprofitable—sustained losses could lead to dilutive capital raises or balance sheet deterioration
• Weak Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 suggests deteriorating financial quality across multiple dimensions
• No meaningful dividend despite modest growth—total return depends entirely on multiple expansion

AI Analysis

Casella Waste Systems Inc. Class A Common Stock is a small-cap industrials company valued at $5.3 billion. Revenue stands at $1.8 billion, though the company is currently unprofitable. From a quality standpoint, Casella shows weak Piotroski F-Score of 3/9 signaling deteriorating fundamentals and Altman Z-Score of 2.0 in the grey zone. On valuation, the stock is commanding a steep 698.9x multiple, with trades far above its Graham Number ($8) with no margin of safety. Growth dynamics show revenue growing at 9.7% and profit growth of -151.5%. Our composite FairStock Score of 23/100 reflects below-average fundamentals overall. Without profitability, this remains speculative—suitable only for those with high risk tolerance and a long time horizon.

Bull Case

Improving fundamentals and sector tailwinds could drive meaningful earnings growth, compressing the effective multiple for patient investors. With $114 million in annual free cash flow (2.2% yield), management has ample capital for buybacks, dividends, or accretive acquisitions.

Bear Case

At 699x earnings, any growth disappointment triggers rapid multiple compression—a 20% earnings miss plus multiple contraction to 20x implies 40%+ downside. Regulatory changes, input cost inflation, or demand normalization represent underappreciated risks that could materially impact forward estimates.

Data from SEC filings. AI analysis is for educational purposes only — not investment advice. Scoring methodology · Disclaimer