Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG)

FairStock Score: 49/100 — MIXED

Key Financials

AI Analysis

AI-generated, general educational analysis — not personal investment advice.

At the close on 2026-10-13, Chipotle traded at $30.35, giving a $38.4B market value. It is a 140,000-employee restaurant chain selling burritos, bowls, quesadillas, tacos, salads, and digital orders. The brand and scale are real, but I want to separate past growth from present economics. In fiscal Q2 2026, the quarter ended 2026-06-30, revenue was $3.3B and net income was $403.5M, or $0.32 diluted EPS. In fiscal Q2 2025, revenue was $3.1B and net income was $436.1M, also $0.32 diluted EPS. Sales rose, but profit fell. On the annual record, FY2025 revenue was $11.9B versus $11.3B in FY2024 and $9.9B in FY2023; net income was $1.5B in FY2025, $1.5B in FY2024, and $1.2B in FY2023. FairStock’s calculations show ROE of 49.56%, ROCE of 13.08%, and debt-to-equity of 2.46. Free cash flow is $1.6B, a 4.1% FCF yield. The balance-sheet metrics are not alarming—Altman Z-Score 3.98 and Piotroski F-Score 7/9—but the price is demanding. The P/E is 28.10, P/B is 17.44, EV/EBITDA is 18.98, and the Graham Number is only $6.50, leaving a margin of safety of -366.92%. FairStock scores it 46/100. The Lynch label is FAST GROWER from five-year profit growth of 34.0% and revenue growth of 14.8%, yet the latest profit trend demands caution. Quality is evident; the price already assumes a lot.

In plain English: Chipotle Mexican Grill runs fast-casual Mexican restaurants, selling burritos, bowls, tacos, and digital orders. Sales have grown over the past few years, but the latest filed quarter showed lower net income than a year earlier, and debt is high compared with the company's accounting value. At the recent close, the shares look expensive relative to profits and accounting value.

The full AI analysis, bull and bear case and key monitorables are in FairStock Pro.

Data as of 2026-10-13 close · note generated 2026-10-15 · model deepseek-flash

Sources (SEC EDGAR): fiscal Q2 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-06-30) · fiscal Q1 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-03-31) · fiscal Q3 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-09-30) · fiscal Q2 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-06-30) · FY2025 10-K (period ended 2025-12-31) · FY2024 10-K (period ended 2024-12-31) · FY2023 10-K (period ended 2023-12-31)

Fundamentals from company filings and market-data providers; prices are end-of-day, not real-time. AI-generated analysis is general and educational — not personal investment advice. Scoring methodology · Score test · Disclaimer