Clearwater Paper Corporation Common Stock (CLW)

FairStock Score: 36/100 — MIXED

Key Financials

AI Analysis

AI-generated, general educational analysis — not personal investment advice.

I approach Clearwater as a cyclical, capital-intensive paperboard maker, not a franchise with a durable moat. It sells SBS paperboard into folding cartons, food service, and liquid packaging—useful products, but customers can switch and pricing is tied to industry supply. The financial record shows why that matters. In fiscal 2024, the year ended 2024-12-31, the company earned $196.3M of net income on $1.4B of revenue, or $11.70 per diluted share. By fiscal 2025, the year ended 2025-12-31, revenue was $1.6B but net income was a loss of $18.6M and diluted EPS was -$1.15. The quarterly path has been erratic: fiscal Q2 2025, ended 2025-06-30, had net income of $2.7M; fiscal Q3 2025, ended 2025-09-30, lost $53.3M; and fiscal Q1 2026, ended 2026-03-31, lost $12.8M with EPS of -$0.80. Balance-sheet and return metrics are weak: FairStock shows P/B 0.40, ROE -10.42%, ROCE -2.67%, Altman Z 1.38, and Piotroski 4/9. The P/E is negative at -3.72. Yet trailing free cash flow is $56.6M, a 17.9% FCF yield against the 2026-10-13 market cap, so the business still throws off cash. Debt/equity of 0.47 is not crushing, but EV/EBITDA of 70.67 signals depressed EBITDA. At $19.59, the price sits within a 52-week range of $11.73-$23.59. FairStock's Lynch category is TURNAROUND — Loss in latest year after earlier profits. The asset value and cash yield are interesting, but the earnings record demands proof of recovery, not hope.

In plain English: Clearwater Paper makes paperboard used in food and packaging products. The business has recently been losing money after earlier profits, and sales have slipped. The stock looks cheap compared with the company's accounting value, but the losses and weak returns make it a risky turnaround that needs profits to recover.

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Data as of 2026-10-13 close · note generated 2026-10-15 · model deepseek-flash

Sources (SEC EDGAR): fiscal Q1 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-03-31) · fiscal Q3 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-09-30) · fiscal Q2 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-06-30) · fiscal Q1 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-03-31) · FY2025 10-K (period ended 2025-12-31) · FY2024 10-K (period ended 2024-12-31) · FY2023 10-K (period ended 2023-12-31)

Fundamentals from company filings and market-data providers; prices are end-of-day, not real-time. AI-generated analysis is general and educational — not personal investment advice. Scoring methodology · Score test · Disclaimer