Chord Energy Corporation Common Stock (CHRD)

FairStock Score: 30/100 — RISKY

Key Financials

Strengths

• Generates $622 million in annual free cash flow (8.1% yield on market cap)
• Conservative balance sheet with debt-to-equity of just 0.19, providing financial flexibility
• Attractive 3.9% dividend yield providing steady income returns

Concerns

• Trades significantly above Graham Number ($49) with negative 178% margin of safety—limited downside protection
• Revenue declining at 19.6% year-over-year signals potential demand weakness or market share loss
• Altman Z-Score of 1.3 places it in the financial distress zone—elevated bankruptcy risk

AI Analysis

Chord Energy Corporation Common Stock is a small-cap energy company valued at $7.7 billion. The business generates $4.6 billion in annual revenue with a 1.8% net margin and $622 million in free cash flow. From a quality standpoint, Chord shows distressed Altman Z-Score of 1.3 warrants caution and modest 1% ROE. On valuation, the stock is commanding a steep 185.3x multiple, with trades far above its Graham Number ($49) with no margin of safety. Growth dynamics show revenue growing at -19.6% and profit growth of -59.9%. The 3.9% dividend yield adds an income component for patient holders. Our composite FairStock Score of 30/100 reflects below-average fundamentals overall. Investors should weigh the business quality against the current price and their own margin of safety requirements.

Bull Case

Improving fundamentals and sector tailwinds could drive meaningful earnings growth, compressing the effective multiple for patient investors. With $622 million in annual free cash flow (8.1% yield), management has ample capital for buybacks, dividends, or accretive acquisitions.

Bear Case

At 185x earnings, any growth disappointment triggers rapid multiple compression—a 20% earnings miss plus multiple contraction to 20x implies 40%+ downside. Regulatory changes, input cost inflation, or demand normalization represent underappreciated risks that could materially impact forward estimates.

Data from SEC filings. AI analysis is for educational purposes only — not investment advice. Scoring methodology · Disclaimer