Carlyle Secured Lending Inc. Common Stock (CGBD)

FairStock Score: 50/100 — MIXED

Key Financials

AI Analysis

AI-generated, general educational analysis — not personal investment advice.

I look first for a durable business with honest accounting and a margin of safety. Carlyle Secured Lending is a business development company lending mostly first-lien and senior secured debt to middle-market borrowers. That can be a decent lending niche, but it is not a wide-moat franchise; credit selection and access to capital determine results. The filed results show deterioration: net income was $92.3 million in fiscal 2023, $89.0 million in fiscal 2024, and $70.0 million in fiscal 2025. In fiscal Q1 2026, the quarter ended 2026-03-31, net income was -$4.2 million, and in fiscal Q2 2026, the quarter ended 2026-06-30, net income was -$60,000. That is not a reassuring trajectory. The balance sheet uses debt: D/E is 1.21, and the supplied Altman Z-score is 0.17, a distressed reading. The Piotroski F-score is 6/9, middling. On the other hand, the FairStock P/B is 0.67 at the 2026-10-13 close, so the market values it at two-thirds of book. The FairStock Graham Number is $13.38, giving a 21.67% margin of safety at that close, and trailing free cash flow yield is 23.1%. The 13.13% dividend yield and 0.71 beta will attract income seekers. But at the 2026-10-13 close the FairStock P/E is 20.55, and the supplied ROE of 3.25% and ROCE of 4.80% are weak. Recent losses mean the dividend may not be covered by net income. The Lynch category -- ASSET PLAY, because it trades at 0.67x book -- fits. I would need evidence that credit losses are contained and net income is recovering before calling this a sound value. The price is statistically cheap versus book, but cheapness alone is not safety when credit quality is uncertain.

In plain English: Carlyle Secured Lending lends money to middle-sized companies, mostly through secured loans. The business has looked weak lately: net income was $92.3 million in fiscal 2023, $89.0 million in fiscal 2024, and $70.0 million in fiscal 2025; in fiscal Q1 2026, the quarter ended 2026-03-31, net income was -$4.2 million, and in fiscal Q2 2026, the quarter ended 2026-06-30, it was -$60,000. The price looks cheap compared with the company’s accounting value, but expensive compared with its recent earnings, and the very high dividend comes with clear risk.

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Data as of 2026-10-13 close · note generated 2026-10-15 · model deepseek-flash

Sources (SEC EDGAR): fiscal Q2 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-06-30) · fiscal Q1 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-03-31) · fiscal Q3 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-09-30) · fiscal Q2 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-06-30) · FY2025 10-K (period ended 2025-12-31) · FY2024 10-K (period ended 2024-12-31) · FY2023 10-K (period ended 2023-12-31)

Fundamentals from company filings and market-data providers; prices are end-of-day, not real-time. AI-generated analysis is general and educational — not personal investment advice. Scoring methodology · Score test · Disclaimer