The Carlyle Group Inc. 4.625% Subordinated Notes due 2061 (CGABL)

Key Financials

AI Analysis

AI-generated, general educational analysis — not personal investment advice.

I approach CGABL as a long-dated subordinated obligation of The Carlyle Group, not as a stock, so my first question is whether the issuer's earnings can support its obligations. The filed record is mixed but not alarming: in fiscal 2025, the year ended 2025-12-31, Carlyle reported revenue of $4.8B, net income of $808.7M, and diluted EPS of $2.18, down from revenue of $5.4B and net income of $1.0B in fiscal 2024, the year ended 2024-12-31. More recently, fiscal Q1 2026, the quarter ended 2026-03-31, produced a net loss of $132.2M, while fiscal Q2 2026, the quarter ended 2026-06-30, rebounded to net income of $137.1M on revenue of $1.1B. That swing says the business's earnings are not stable, which matters for a 2061 maturity and subordinated claim. I cannot judge a competitive moat from these figures. On the positive side, fiscal 2025 followed a fiscal 2023 loss of $608.4M, and the computed Lynch category is TURNAROUND - returned to profit after a loss within the last three years. But the data provided lacks leverage, interest coverage, covenants, and note-level yield or asset coverage, so I cannot derive a margin of safety for the note. At $15.34, close on 2026-10-16, near the $15.07 low of its 52-week range, price alone is not a valuation. I would require note-specific credit metrics and stable earnings before calling it soundly financed.

In plain English: The Carlyle Group is a financial-services company, and this security is a long-dated company debt that ranks behind other debts. Recent full-year figures show a profit after a loss year, but quarterly results have swung between loss and profit. At $15.34, the price sits near the low end of its 52-week range, but the provided data do not include enough note-level numbers to judge whether it is cheap, fair or expensive.

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Data as of 2026-10-16 close · note generated 2026-10-20 · model deepseek-flash

Sources (SEC EDGAR): fiscal Q2 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-06-30) · fiscal Q1 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-03-31) · fiscal Q3 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-09-30) · fiscal Q2 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-06-30) · FY2025 10-K (period ended 2025-12-31) · FY2024 10-K (period ended 2024-12-31) · FY2023 10-K (period ended 2023-12-31)

Fundamentals from company filings and market-data providers; prices are end-of-day, not real-time. AI-generated analysis is general and educational — not personal investment advice. Scoring methodology · Score test · Disclaimer