CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF)

FairStock Score: 76/100 — HIGH CONVICTION

Key Financials

AI Analysis

AI-generated, general educational analysis — not personal investment advice.

I look at CF as a cyclical agricultural-inputs producer, not a bond substitute. FairStock classifies it as CYCLICAL — Agricultural Inputs because earnings follow the economic cycle, and that frames my thinking. The business makes ammonia and nitrogen products; scale can matter, but commodity producers rarely have a wide moat, so I focus on cost position and balance sheet. The filed numbers are strong: in fiscal Q2 2026, the quarter ended 2026-06-30, revenue was $2.2B, net income $869M, and diluted EPS $4.73, versus $1.9B, $492M, and $2.37 in fiscal Q2 2025. Full-year FY2025 was $7.1B revenue, $1.8B net income, and $8.97 diluted EPS. FairStock's calculations show a 29.87% ROE, 12.93% ROCE, 0.41 debt-to-equity, 9/9 Piotroski, and 2.85 Altman Z-score — financially healthy, though the Altman score is not a fortress. TTM free cash flow is $1.9B, a 10.4% FCF yield. At the $120.84 close on 2026-10-26, FairStock puts P/E at 8.96, P/B at 3.19, EV/EBITDA at 4.67, PEG at 0.09, and the Graham Number at $107.28 — a -12.49% margin of safety. So the price is statistically cheap on earnings and cash flow, but slightly above a Graham-style asset-value anchor. Given cyclicality, I would require a larger discount for peak-ish margins and watch whether the strong filed profit converts into durable free cash flow.

In plain English: CF Industries makes nitrogen fertilizer products such as ammonia, urea and ammonium nitrate for farmers and distributors. The business looks strong on the latest filed numbers: sales, profit and cash flow are high, and debt is moderate. At $120.84, the shares look cheap compared with profit and cash flow but slightly above a simple conservative value estimate.

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Data as of 2026-10-26 close · note generated 2026-10-28 · model deepseek-flash

Sources (SEC EDGAR): fiscal Q2 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-06-30) · fiscal Q1 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-03-31) · fiscal Q3 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-09-30) · fiscal Q2 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-06-30) · FY2025 10-K (period ended 2025-12-31) · FY2024 10-K (period ended 2024-12-31) · FY2023 10-K (period ended 2023-12-31)

Fundamentals from company filings and market-data providers; prices are end-of-day, not real-time. AI-generated analysis is general and educational — not personal investment advice. Scoring methodology · Score test · Disclaimer