Certara Inc. Common Stock (CERT)

FairStock Score: 45/100 — MIXED

Key Financials

AI Analysis

AI-generated, general educational analysis — not personal investment advice.

At the 2026-10-13 close of $9.60, Certara's $1.5B market value asks me to pay for future biosimulation profits, not present ones. In FY2023, the year ended 2023-12-31, revenue was $354.3M; in FY2024, the year ended 2024-12-31, $385.1M; in FY2025, the year ended 2025-12-31, $418.8M. That is progress, but only 0.99% revenue growth per FairStock. Worse, in fiscal Q2 2026, the quarter ended 2026-06-30, revenue was $93.3M and net income was -$55.3M, versus a -$8.8M loss in fiscal Q1 2026, the quarter ended 2026-03-31, and $1.5M profit in fiscal Q3 2025, the quarter ended 2025-09-30. Such swings argue against a durable moat. The balance sheet is not alarming: FairStock's D/E is 0.31, Altman Z-Score 2.06, and Piotroski F-Score 5/9. Trailing free cash flow is $54.6M, a 3.7% FCF yield, and FairStock's P/B is 1.51. But FairStock's ROE is -2.21%, ROCE 0.77%, and EV/EBITDA 20.04 is not cheap for a sub-1% grower. P/E is -68.57 because earnings are negative. FairStock calls it a TURNAROUND, meaning loss in the latest year after earlier profits, so the key is whether profitability returns. At $9.60, I see some asset and cash-flow support, but no clear margin of safety until losses reverse. Price looks fair at best versus weak fundamentals.

In plain English: Certara makes software and services that help drug companies simulate how medicines may work in the body. The business looks weak right now because it is losing money, and sales are growing very slowly. At $9.60, the price is not clearly cheap or expensive: it trades near its accounting value and still generates some cash, but losses make profits-based valuation difficult.

The full AI analysis, bull and bear case and key monitorables are in FairStock Pro.

Data as of 2026-10-13 close · note generated 2026-10-15 · model deepseek-flash

Sources (SEC EDGAR): fiscal Q2 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-06-30) · fiscal Q1 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-03-31) · fiscal Q3 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-09-30) · fiscal Q2 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-06-30) · FY2025 10-K (period ended 2025-12-31) · FY2024 10-K (period ended 2024-12-31) · FY2023 10-K (period ended 2023-12-31)

Fundamentals from company filings and market-data providers; prices are end-of-day, not real-time. AI-generated analysis is general and educational — not personal investment advice. Scoring methodology · Score test · Disclaimer