CareDx Inc. Common Stock (CDNA)

FairStock Score: 41/100 — MIXED

Key Financials

AI Analysis

AI-generated, general educational analysis — not personal investment advice.

CareDx sells specialized tests for transplant patients—AlloSure and AlloMap—which can create recurring clinical relationships, but I need evidence of a durable moat. The revenue line is moving: in fiscal Q2 2026, the quarter ended 2026-06-30, revenue was $131.9M versus $86.7M in fiscal Q2 2025, the quarter ended 2025-06-30; FY2025 revenue was $379.8M versus FY2024 revenue of $333.8M. Profitability, however, is erratic. FY2023 lost $190.3M, FY2024 earned $52.5M, and FY2025 lost $21.4M. Then fiscal Q2 2026 reported net income of $110.6M. Before I trust that, I would want to know whether it is recurring or an accounting swing; the data does not say. The balance sheet looks sturdy: FairStock gives debt/equity of 0.05, Altman Z-Score 18.59, Piotroski 6/9, and trailing free cash flow of $84.0M. But ROCE is -0.25% and FCF yield is only 2.5%. At the 2026-10-13 close of $65.43, FairStock calculates P/E 31.46, P/B 7.91, EV/EBITDA 194.79, and a Graham Number of $19.67—a negative margin of safety of 232.64%. That is not a Graham bargain. The Lynch category is TURNAROUND, reflecting a loss in the latest year after earlier profits. I would want several quarters of normalized profit and cash generation before calling this a high-quality compounder at today's price.

In plain English: CareDx makes blood tests and other tools used to check the health of transplanted organs. Revenue is growing quickly, and the latest quarter showed a large profit, but the company has had losses in some recent full years and its cash profit is small compared with its $3.4 billion total value. At $65.43, the shares look expensive compared with the company's reported earnings and cash flow, so the price appears to assume a lot of future success.

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Data as of 2026-10-13 close · note generated 2026-10-15 · model deepseek-flash

Sources (SEC EDGAR): fiscal Q2 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-06-30) · fiscal Q1 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-03-31) · fiscal Q3 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-09-30) · fiscal Q2 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-06-30) · FY2025 10-K (period ended 2025-12-31) · FY2024 10-K (period ended 2024-12-31) · FY2023 10-K (period ended 2023-12-31)

Fundamentals from company filings and market-data providers; prices are end-of-day, not real-time. AI-generated analysis is general and educational — not personal investment advice. Scoring methodology · Score test · Disclaimer