Carrier Global Corporation (CARR)

FairStock Score: 30/100 — RISKY

Key Financials

AI Analysis

AI-generated, general educational analysis — not personal investment advice.

I look for businesses with durable advantages, honest accounting, and a price that leaves room for error. Carrier is a global climate and energy solutions provider with $21.7B in revenue in fiscal year 2025, ended 2025-12-31, and $1.9B of trailing free cash flow, a 4.2% FCF yield on the 2026-10-13 market cap. That cash generation and a Piotroski F-score of 8/9 suggest the balance sheet and operations are not falling apart. But the quality picture is mixed. FairStock calculations show return on equity of 8.97% and return on capital employed of just 2.98%, far from what I want in an industrial compounder. Debt-to-equity of 0.92 and an Altman Z-score of 1.86 add caution. Growth is lackluster: FY2024 revenue was $22.5B and fell to $21.7B in FY2025, while net income dropped from $5.6B to $1.5B and diluted EPS from $6.15 to $1.72. Profit growth of -15.23% and the FairStock Lynch category of SLOW GROWER — Shrinking, with profit down 5.8% a year over five years, tell me the trend is not friendly. Valuation is the biggest hurdle. At $55.03, FairStock's calculated P/E is 39.31, P/B is 3.45, EV/EBITDA is 18.43, and the Graham Number is $22.41, implying a -145.56% margin of safety. FairStock score is 24/100. I see a decent business with real cash flow but weak returns, falling profits, and a price that already assumes a lot. On these numbers, the value case would require either much stronger earnings or a much lower price.

In plain English: Carrier makes heating, cooling, and energy systems for homes and buildings around the world. The company produces solid cash, but profits have been shrinking and it carries a fair amount of debt. At the 2026-10-13 close of $55.03, the shares look expensive compared with the money it earns and what it owns.

The full AI analysis, bull and bear case and key monitorables are in FairStock Pro.

Data as of 2026-10-13 close · note generated 2026-10-15 · model deepseek-flash

Sources (SEC EDGAR): fiscal Q1 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-03-31) · fiscal Q3 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-09-30) · fiscal Q2 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-06-30) · fiscal Q1 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-03-31) · FY2025 10-K (period ended 2025-12-31) · FY2024 10-K (period ended 2024-12-31) · FY2023 10-K (period ended 2023-12-31)

Fundamentals from company filings and market-data providers; prices are end-of-day, not real-time. AI-generated analysis is general and educational — not personal investment advice. Scoring methodology · Score test · Disclaimer