Carlsmed Inc. Common Stock (CARL)

FairStock Score: 38/100 — MIXED

Key Financials

AI Analysis

AI-generated, general educational analysis — not personal investment advice.

I look for businesses with durable economics, honest accounting, and a margin of safety. Carlsmed is an interesting commercial-stage medtech: it sells AI-enabled personalized spine surgery solutions, including the aprevo platform. The top line is moving: in fiscal Q2 2026, the quarter ended 2026-06-30, revenue was $18.9M versus $12.1M in fiscal Q2 2025, the quarter ended 2025-06-30, and in FY2025, the year ended 2025-12-31, revenue was $50.5M versus $27.2M in FY2024, the year ended 2024-12-31. That is real growth. But the bottom line is not following. In fiscal Q2 2026, net income was -$10.5M, wider than -$6.8M in fiscal Q2 2025. In FY2025, net loss was -$29.6M versus -$24.3M in FY2024. Trailing free cash flow is -$35.7M, a -9.0% FCF yield on a $395.1M market cap; these are FairStock calculations. At the 2026-10-13 close of $14.47, the FairStock P/B is 4.68, P/E is -6.18, ROE is -66.14%, and ROCE is -28.19%. Debt/equity is modest at 0.26, and Altman Z-score is 6.40, but Piotroski F-score is only 2/9. FairStock score is 38/100, and no Lynch category can be assigned because only two years of filed results exist. The business may have a narrow, emerging moat if surgeons and hospitals adopt its personalized workflow, but I see no durable moat yet. While revenue growth is excellent, losses and cash burn mean no margin of safety. Price looks speculative versus current numbers.

In plain English: Carlsmed makes personalized spine surgery implants and planning software. Sales are growing quickly, but the company still loses money and spends more cash than it brings in. At the recent price, the market is paying a high amount relative to today's sales and losses, so it does not look cheap on the given numbers.

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Data as of 2026-10-13 close · note generated 2026-10-15 · model deepseek-flash

Sources (SEC EDGAR): fiscal Q2 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-06-30) · fiscal Q1 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-03-31) · fiscal Q3 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-09-30) · fiscal Q2 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-06-30) · FY2025 10-K (period ended 2025-12-31) · FY2024 10-K (period ended 2024-12-31)

Fundamentals from company filings and market-data providers; prices are end-of-day, not real-time. AI-generated analysis is general and educational — not personal investment advice. Scoring methodology · Score test · Disclaimer