Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc. Common Stock (BXMT)

FairStock Score: 40/100 — MIXED

Key Financials

Strengths

• Revenue growth of 39.2% demonstrates strong top-line momentum
• Attractive 9.4% dividend yield providing steady income returns

Concerns

• High leverage at 4.62x debt-to-equity increases financial risk and interest expense burden
• Altman Z-Score of -0.0 places it in the financial distress zone—elevated bankruptcy risk

AI Analysis

Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc. Common Stock is a small-cap real estate company valued at $3.3 billion. The business generates $440 million in annual revenue with a 9.0% net margin. From a quality standpoint, Blackstone shows distressed Altman Z-Score of -0.0 warrants caution and modest 3% ROE. On valuation, the stock is trading at a premium 31.2x earnings, with trades above its Graham Number with a negative 14% margin. Growth dynamics show revenue growing at 39.2% and profit growth of 6.4%. The 9.4% dividend yield adds an income component for patient holders. Our composite FairStock Score of 40/100 reflects below-average fundamentals overall. Investors should weigh the business quality against the current price and their own margin of safety requirements.

Bull Case

Blackstone's 39% revenue growth trajectory could accelerate as it captures additional market share in the real estate sector. Operational leverage in the business model means incremental revenue growth could disproportionately boost bottom-line profitability.

Bear Case

At 31x earnings, any growth disappointment triggers rapid multiple compression—a 20% earnings miss plus multiple contraction to 20x implies 40%+ downside. Regulatory changes, input cost inflation, or demand normalization represent underappreciated risks that could materially impact forward estimates.

Data from SEC filings. AI analysis is for educational purposes only — not investment advice. Scoring methodology · Disclaimer