Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc. Common Stock (BXMT)

FairStock Score: 40/100 — MIXED

Key Financials

AI Analysis

AI-generated, general educational analysis — not personal investment advice.

Blackstone Mortgage Trust is a commercial real estate lender. Its stated portfolio is senior floating-rate, first-priority mortgages, which should sit high in the capital stack, but a lender is only as good as its underwriting. I cannot see a durable moat in these figures; this is a spread business dependent on credit discipline. The filed figures show how cyclical it is: FY2023 net income was $246.6M and EPS $1.43; FY2024 swung to a net loss of $204.1M and EPS -$1.17; FY2025 recovered to net income $109.6M and EPS $0.64. Then in the quarter ended 2026-03-31, net loss was $6.3M and EPS -$0.04, and in the quarter ended 2026-06-30, net loss was $81.2M and EPS -$0.48. That is not the consistency I want. The FairStock data show a P/B of 0.56 at the 2026-10-13 close of $10.74, so the market values it well below book, while P/E is 134.25 at that close. ROE is only 0.45% and ROCE 0.08%; D/E is 4.85, so leverage is high. Piotroski 4/9 and FairStock score 40/100 suggest weak financial momentum. The 14.17% dividend yield is tempting, but with Q2 2026 EPS of -$0.48, it is not covered by recent earnings. The Lynch category is TURNAROUND because it returned to profit after a loss within the last three years. A low price to book can be a value opportunity if book value is real and credit marks are conservative; otherwise it is a value trap. CET1, net interest margin and combined ratio are not in the data. I would need loan-level credit trends and book-value stability before trusting the discount. At $10.74, near the 52-week low of $10.64, the price reflects distress; it is not obvious bargain unless credit improves.

In plain English: Blackstone Mortgage Trust lends money to owners of commercial property, mainly through senior loans secured by buildings. The business looks weak right now: it lost money in the two most recent quarters I can see and earns very little on its assets. The stock trades at a low price compared with its accounting book value, which can look cheap, but the recent losses and very high dividend make the price look risky, not clearly cheap.

The full AI analysis, bull and bear case and key monitorables are in FairStock Pro.

Data as of 2026-10-13 close · note generated 2026-10-15 · model deepseek-flash

Sources (SEC EDGAR): fiscal Q2 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-06-30) · fiscal Q1 2026 10-Q (period ended 2026-03-31) · fiscal Q3 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-09-30) · fiscal Q2 2025 10-Q (period ended 2025-06-30) · FY2025 10-K (period ended 2025-12-31) · FY2024 10-K (period ended 2024-12-31) · FY2023 10-K (period ended 2023-12-31)

Fundamentals from company filings and market-data providers; prices are end-of-day, not real-time. AI-generated analysis is general and educational — not personal investment advice. Scoring methodology · Score test · Disclaimer