Baytex Energy Corp Common Shares (BTE)

FairStock Score: 29/100 — RISKY

Key Financials

AI Analysis

AI-generated, general educational analysis — not personal investment advice.

I look at Baytex as a commodity price taker, not a business with a durable competitive moat. It produces oil and gas in western Canada, so its results depend on prices it cannot control. The latest data show a striking split: in fiscal Q2 2026, revenue was $639.9 million and net income was $174.9 million, a 27.33% margin, yet the trailing figures include an EPS of -$0.25, P/E of -20.08, ROE of -8.77%, and ROCE of only 0.85%. That tells me the recent quarter was good, but the full cycle has not yet proven durable profitability. The balance sheet gives some comfort: debt-to-equity is just 0.07, TTM free cash flow is $263.5 million, and the FCF yield is 7.9%. The Piotroski F-Score is 8/9, and EV/EBITDA is 4.25, which looks inexpensive if cash flow holds. But the Altman Z-Score of 0.85 signals distress risk, P/B is 2.31, and price at $5.02 on 2026-10-13 is near the upper end of the 52-week range of $2.18–$5.36. Revenue growth of 55.69% and profit growth of 15.39% are encouraging, but commodity businesses can reverse quickly. With a FairStock Score of 29/100 and no Lynch category because only 0 years of filed results are available versus the 3 needed, I would demand a wider margin of safety. The dividend yield is 1.34% and beta 0.57, but those do not change the cyclical risk.

In plain English: Baytex Energy is an oil and gas producer in western Canada. Its latest quarterly report showed a profit, but over the past year it lost money and earns very little on the capital it uses, so the business looks mixed. At $5.02, the shares are not clearly cheap or expensive: cash flow is decent for the size, but weak profits and a high price compared with accounting value leave little cushion.

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Data as of 2026-10-13 close · note generated 2026-10-15 · model deepseek-flash

Fundamentals from company filings and market-data providers; prices are end-of-day, not real-time. AI-generated analysis is general and educational — not personal investment advice. Scoring methodology · Score test · Disclaimer