Blue Dart Expres (BLUEDART)

FairStock Score: 54/100 — MIXED

Score breakdown: P/E: 0/3 · ROCE: 1/2 · Growth: 2/2 · Dividend: 0/1

Key Financials

Strengths

• Strong profitability metrics: ROE 16.27%, ROCE 16.33%, and positive free cash flow of ₹435 Cr.
• Balance-sheet comfort: Piotroski F-Score 8/9 and Altman Z-Score 5.12 signal financial stability.
• Promoter holding of 75% aligns management with long-term shareholders.
• Revenue resilience with 5-year CAGR of 11.71%; latest quarterly sales ₹1,616 Cr.

Concerns

• Valuation is excessive: P/E 46.38, P/B 8.14, and EV/EBITDA 66.65; Graham Number of ₹1,257.89 implies no margin of safety.
• Profit growth is negative at -7.77% while sales growth is only 7.09%; latest quarter net margin is thin around 4.2%.
• Dividend yield of 0.44% offers negligible income support.
• Even the DCF value of ₹9,822.61 depends on a durable earnings recovery; the recent profit decline makes that assumption uncertain.

AI Analysis

Blue Dart is the kind of business Buffett would admire for its franchise quality, but not at any price. The numbers reveal a solid logistics operator: return on equity of 16.27%, return on capital of 16.33%, positive free cash flow of ₹435 crore, and a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9. The Altman Z-Score of 5.12 indicates financial stability. A 75% promoter holding means management has skin in the game, and the 5-year revenue CAGR of 11.71% shows that the company has compounded its top line through cycles. Yet my Graham instincts are deeply troubled. The current P/E of 46.38 and P/B of 8.14 are far beyond what a disciplined value investor should pay. Graham's defensive number works out to ₹1,257.89, giving a margin of safety of -351.75%. Even with a favourable DCF estimate of ₹9,822.61, I cannot ignore the fact that latest net profit fell 7.77% while sales rose only 7.09%. The latest quarter's net margin is roughly 4.2% — a thin cushion. The debt-to-equity ratio of 0.66 is not alarming, but with an EV/EBITDA of 66.65, the market is paying an enormous premium for each rupee of operating cash earnings. Dividend yield is a negligible 0.44%, so the investor is entirely dependent on capital appreciation. This is an excellent stalwart logistics franchise, but the price embeds perfection. In Graham's language, there is no margin of safety at ₹5,349.35. I would wait for earnings growth to resume and valuation to come closer to intrinsic worth before committing capital. Patience, not action, is appropriate today.

Data from BSE/NSE filings. AI analysis is for educational purposes only — not investment advice. Scoring methodology · Disclaimer